0:00Richard Greaser Folks, welcome back to the Bugle Weekly. And before we get in the show, just want to give a just remember John c Dvorak and what he has done for podcasting. He was the cohost of No Agenda and just died last week, leaving Adam Curry with some, you know, massive shoes to fill. And, I don't know if Adam is going to be able to fill his shoes

0:28Richard Greaser or what, but John C. Dvorak, true pioneer in the broadcasting world, really growing podcasting. You know, No Agenda is a very, very, very

0:44Richard Greaser influential famous podcast. I wouldn't call it a Bitcoin podcast, but it's a Bitcoin Bitcoin podcast adjacent. And, yeah, him and Adam really were the pioneers of promoting, growing, creating this idea of value for value.

1:04Richard Greaser You know, they did it in the most boomer way possible where people would mail them checks every week or or month or or year instead of doing fountain boost. But, if you're a listener to no agenda, Do you know how big of a deal this is that he's gone? And I I think this really marks, in many ways, the end of the era. We're watching a huge

1:31Richard Greaser shift happen now as many of the boomers are dying off. Some of them are clutching onto life as, long as possible. Some of them we like. Some of them like John. He was a good boomer. Some of them we don't like, like, Lindsey Graham. He was a bad boomer. But we're seeing this this massive shift. And as we all know, generation x is not gonna

1:56Richard Greaser pick up the mantle. It's gonna be left to the hands of the the millennials, the broccoli haircuts, and and even generation alpha. The the kids that are still singing baby shark are gonna have to fix the future where Gen x is failing. And, I mean, we're seeing this clearly now. Rod, you know, you've been monitoring the situation of the boomers crashing out in spaces. It it seems like it's it's getting out of control over there.

2:26Richard Greaser Are you seeing this massive shift happen where the boomers are,

2:32Rod Palmer We we we predicted, that this would be the summer of crash outs. We predicted that the crash outs would accelerate and that he he would be at a unprecedented

2:47Rod Palmer pace. But we didn't predict, and I don't know if we either of us foresaw the the the the crash outs would be so targeted to a single age demographic,

3:01Rod Palmer and it's the boomers. The boomers are crashing out left and right. And I don't I mean, maybe we can get into why. Maybe maybe that's where we start. Why do you think that the crash outs have been so focused on the boomers? Because I thought we were gonna see a lot from broccoli haircuts because why not? Right? Like, the the the cards are stacked against the broccoli haircuts right now.

3:26Rod Palmer They can't buy a house. They can't afford a house. They can't afford you. Some of them are still going to college, but they're just getting saddled with debt. They can't get a job because they're not as productive as Claude or Chad JBT. They can't afford Bitcoin. They can't afford anything. They can't afford to do anything except for,

3:46Rod Palmer I don't know, crash app. And some of them are. Like, you go to the cities, you go to the urban centers, you've got what they Tim Dillon talked about this a few weeks ago. He's flash mobs where it's just they're just committing crimes and violence and twerking and just doing all this nonsense for the simple reasons. They wanna go viral. They wanna be viral on social media. They wanna be on video, curb stomping, you know, somebody from the

4:14Rod Palmer the the Proud Boys or Antifa or whatever. And so there there there are isolated crash outs from the broccoli haircuts. The millennials, again, like, they they've always been crashing out. They're crashing out over the words coming back that we're supposed to you know, the the the most offended generation in history, the millennials, they're they're always crashing out about being offended. And then you got gen x who they're crashing out at a very high rate, but the gen again, Gen x just doesn't matter. It's like the least

4:46Rod Palmer it's the least consequential generation, perhaps in American history, the least interesting, the least funny, the least culturally relevant,

4:60Rod Palmer the least willing to take self responsibility and personal accountability for anything, they just wanna reminisce on how great fight club was, how fate how great star you know, the matrix was, argue over what's better, Star Trek or Star Wars, talk about how great comic books were,

5:22Rod Palmer how they went and saw the band tool, got went to a Phish concert, a Grateful Dead concert. Like, okay. Whatever. Like, you you they obviously, you're in the you're not even in the fourth turning yet. You're still in the third turning. When you peaked, but the boomers and I don't know. Is it because their Social Security is not keeping up with inflation? Is it because they're losing all their Social Security at I've slot machines in Vegas. Is it because their house right? House prices were going

5:51Rod Palmer not going up as high as they thought, and they can't sell it so they can go to Vegas again? Like, why are the boomers crashing out so hard?

5:58Richard Greaser I think it's a few things. I I think it's because, they they want the Fed to lower interest rates and, issued, a sense of security. But, I mean, I think this is the boomers are crashing out for the same reason that, you know, many Bitcoin people are crashing out is that, they bought into the swamp a little bit too hard, and they thought the world would look a certain way, and it doesn't look the way that they want it to. And, you know, like, the boomers are just like many, Bitcoin people where they are really, like, okay with this idea of everything collapsing around them as long as they're rich and comfortable. And,

6:41Richard Greaser you know, many Bitcoin people are like, oh, you know, we we, have a DCA non swan. We're gonna be, you know, rich for the rest of our lives. We're gonna watch everybody else have fun staying poor, and, life is gonna be, you know, great and easy for us. That's that's what, you know, many of the boomers did is they they thought that, you know, they they could work and, you know, take two weeks off vacation once or twice a year and,

7:12Richard Greaser you know, be able to have a Social Security check to give away a slot machines and and sit in Twitter spaces all day and, you know, argue about the weather. And then instead, it seems like everything, you know, that they were betting on is is changing and collapsing around them. I mean, like, these these people grew up believing the moon landing was real their whole lives, and now that's in jeopardy. They they they believe that

7:39Richard Greaser anybody that believed in aliens was an idiot. And now, you know, it is, like, mainstream to to talk about aliens or or at least the government's saying that there's aliens. Yeah. They Well, I think

7:54Rod Palmer I think it really boils down to a couple of different buckets. But I think you gotta start with the average boomer had well, I mean, they were bore they were all born on third base, and they thought, you know, they with with wife handed to them on a silver platter. There was a study that came out the other day that somebody earning minimum wage in 1971

8:21Rod Palmer I have the same affordability and quality of life as somebody who makes 6 figure salary today. You were able to work as, you know, a cobbler's assistant at the local strip mall, part time,

8:37Rod Palmer making minimum wage, and you could afford a a 4,000 square foot house, two cars, you could have five kids. But, you know, you just put your money in bonds in the nineteen eighties to the, you know, 2020, and you're able to retire. Boomers were born with life handed to them on a silver platter. It was the ultimate you know, the basically, it was the cold war, but, really, United States was the the main economic

9:03Rod Palmer and military superpower, especially in this, you know, as they got towards their adult life. They lived through globalization in the outsourcing of, like, they you know, a lot of boomers alive today, they didn't have to work in a factory their whole lives. Most of them got to get an email job when the Internet was invented and we sent all the jobs to Mexico and China. They didn't have to work hard.

9:29Rod Palmer They they barely had to be able to learn how to use the Internet and still become executives and corporations. They but the problem is that they were born with this unique in this, like, Goldilocks zone of having the easiest life of any human generation to ever live. But they didn't realize it. It's like the the quote where the fish is like the old fish swims by the young fish and says, good morning, boys. How's the water today? And the two young fish because they just they're so immersed. Or you can't see the forest for the trees. They're like, what is water? The boomers didn't realize how easy they had it until

10:07Rod Palmer the millennials and the gen x er or the gen z, the broccoli haircuts, started to point it out to them, started to mock them and say how, you know, they we're able to buy a house for a carton of blueberries back in the nineteen sixties and seventies. And they started to reflect on their lives, and they realized that they missed out on a shitload of glaze. Like, they're seeing all the glaze going around. They're seeing all the, like, all the things that they, you know, saw you can't really

10:36Rod Palmer say that every boomer had the easiest life and just got rich on accident by trusting the government, but many did. And the ones who didn't are looking back and they're kicking themselves, and they're like, why didn't I just buy a twenty year government bond in 2000 or in 1981? Why didn't I just buy a bunch of houses

10:57Rod Palmer with the spare change under my sofa and did sell them, you know, in in in the early two thousand twenties. Like, why did I mess up? And and so they're, like, living this you you have, like, midlife crisis. Well, boomers are having endlife crisis where they didn't get they didn't take advantage of all the just unprecedented

11:19Rod Palmer once in a gen you know, once in a millennia opportunity that they had living in the easiest times of of, you know, human history. And the other thing is that they're coming to this realization that they missed they did, you know, they they were too young to miss the last chopper out of Vietnam. And they may have missed the last opportunity

11:44Rod Palmer to be self sovereign, in this era, in this accelerated first turning environment that we live in. And so they're desperately clasping to the one opportunity they can have to be self sovereign, which is being a node runner. And

11:60Rod Palmer they've been sold this this narrative that running a node makes you a self sovereign individual. And they're finding out that maybe it's more complicated than that. Maybe a pleb node is not just a you know, you don't just give Start Nine $1,000

12:18Rod Palmer and not yourself's offer because you have a Start Nine pleb node. And being who they are, boomers who were coddled and have the easiest lives of all time, like, they don't like being told no. Boomers are not being used to being told no, and be these younger generations are now saying to the boomers, no. Totally.

12:38Richard Greaser Yeah. I mean, I I think they had these expectations that life is gonna look a certain way. Right? And, you know, they began to to ask questions. Like, they never they never thought about self sovereignty being, you know, a topic discussion because, it was just inconvenient, and they had everything handed to them. And so the the default was always choosing convenience, but now things are becoming more inconvenient. And self sovereignty is,

13:08Richard Greaser more it makes more sense and is more attractive, you know, to consider. But self sovereignty is difficult because, you know, many of them, they they have old bodies. They can't handle self sovereignty. They can't handle waking up every morning and

13:26Richard Greaser tending to, you know, the chickens and, you know, going out and for hours and hour, mending fences in the in the wilderness. And so yeah. I mean, they're they're looking at node running as a potential way to attain that experience of being self sovereign.

13:48Richard Greaser But they they don't there there there's a a technological

13:53Rod Palmer illiteracy that they all have. They they don't know how to use their iPhones. Absolutely. Absolutely. They don't know how to use their iPhones. They don't know how to talk to chat GPT. They talk to chat GPT like it's a server at a restaurant, and we've all been with boomers who try to talk to or try, you know, the slightest inconvenience and they're crashing out at the waitress at TGI Fridays. And they do the same thing with Chatsch AT and T. They do the same thing with AI. They crash out and they spend all their tokens crashing out instead of using AI to build something valuable, to create a framework that they can use that they can scale their self sovereignty on.

14:32Rod Palmer And then you, you know, going back to this point of, like, nobody was telling the boomers no. One of the biggest crash out stories on the timeline right now is Puncher. He goes by, you know, Puncher, like, what, 522 or something. And if you if you if you're on the timeline, you're in the group chats, you know what I'm talking about. Puncher is this is a is in Maxi Madness. He was in the playing rounds. He is a a staple in the spaces, especially the morning and evening Bitcoin spaces on on x, formally Twitter. And

15:04Rod Palmer he's just this has been a weeks long crash out and we, you know, come to find out I mean, it's in his bio, it's not gonna be docs, the guy, but he was he used to be in the military and he was a fighter pilot And he was which means you're an officer. So this guy was used to walking around and being saluted by plebs everywhere he went. Saluted by everybody. It was it was mandatory. He had to be saluted. He had to be glazed. And he's kinda he he he's now in this wild he's on the frontier on a in on Bitcoin Twitter. And people are not gla I mean, you've got Timothy Bitcoins who's

15:43Rod Palmer dunking on him. Vinny Bitcoins constantly dunking on him. He's got Mars running circles around him in the group chats. And Mars ganged up with David Daley to get Hunter to rage quit. Mama humbles her chat recently. And it's it's it's just this it's this narrative shift. Like a boomer who was in the military.

16:07Rod Palmer I mean, support the troops. Right? Like, so much glaze that was just it was institutional glaze that he felt entitled to. Young people did not talk back to him. And now he's got he's just got everybody talking shit. Nobody cares anymore. Nobody has any respect anymore, and he can't handle it. And he's trying to pull up these examples of the the revolutionary war and the 3% and

16:34Rod Palmer the support the troops narratives, and it's just those narratives, those are fourth turning, third turning narratives. They don't work anymore. And it's just very difficult for these boomers to handle getting talked back to and just not getting respect, you know, by default.

16:54Richard Greaser Totally. Well, I mean, it's, the the the like, one one of the reasons why gen x is so useless as a generation is, it is very clear that they're useless as a generation because the boomers are still in power. And, like, the boomers have grown accustomed to this idea of, younger generations just being kind of, subservient to them and and going along with whatever they they say or by default without really questioning it. And and why did they do that is because, you know, boomers have held

17:24Richard Greaser the money printers, essentially. You know, Gen x, you know, they're like, okay. If I just, like, shut my mouth and and do what I told, I'm gonna be, you know, handed a a mortgage, and then I can afford to buy a house. And, like, you know, the the problem with the younger generations is, the the money printer isn't is accessible to them, and they they just don't really care. Right?

17:48Richard Greaser And so they're doing what is natural, what a Gen X should have done in the first place, which is rip the power out of the boomer's hands. Because this is this is part of, like, the natural order of things. Right? Is younger generations taking of the reins of power from the older generation? You you go and you watch old movies, like, what happens all the time? It's,

18:14Richard Greaser you know, the the sinister crazy, you know, son or or nephew or whatever, like, poisons their dad to, like, become king, you know, in a power struggle with, you know, their brother. You know, there there's all of those things that that happen eventually. Like, what how does power work ultimately? The the strong hold on to it. And it's very clear, you know, the boomers are not, like,

18:37Richard Greaser strong physically or or mentally now. Oh, this is

18:42Rod Palmer this is where it comes full circle. The Gen X was simultaneously the most neglected generation of all time

18:52Rod Palmer and the most compliant because they saw how easy their boomer parents had it, and they said, I'm not gonna fight it. I'm just gonna go along with go with the flow, watch MTV, and I'll get what my boomer parents had. And they didn't get it, but it's too late for them now. Gen x, they did not cultivate a habit of being, self starters. They did not cultivate a habit of ambition, of making difficult choices. They just

19:21Rod Palmer went with the flow, if you know what I mean. And then the millennials were born in this, like, safe space bubble, this nerfed life, overprotected, and they just don't know how to operate outside of the safe space. So anytime a millennial gets to up the beat, all a boomer had to do was make a racist joke or say a slur, and the millennial would start crying and run away, run back to their safe space. But

19:50Rod Palmer where this crashing app is starting to really come to a head is because generation z is completely unaffected by slurs and racist jokes. A boomer does a racist joke

20:03Rod Palmer at a Gen z broccoli haircut, and they get one back so offensive that the boomer is the one crashing out. Boomers love to say the n word. They love to make fun of women and talk about sexual harassment. But the second you question whether or not Adolf Hitler and the Nazis were good or bad, a boomer just their brain short circuits. All all of Gen z broccoli Erica has to do is make an ironic statement glazing Adolf Hitler, and a boomer absolutely shuts down and crashes out. They cannot handle it, especially if they're Jewish. So the they had no if they they never had

20:43Rod Palmer to parent adversarially or grandparent adversarially before until the brotheling haircuts came along. And they're just unequipped to do it, and they're too old to learn new tricks. Chat GpK can't help them because Chat GPG is not afraid to be racist either. Well, Chat GPG maybe, but Crocs is not. And it's it the first for the first time, a generation is able to stand up. Even though the millennials would stand up to the boomers, it was very easy to throw them aside.

21:10Rod Palmer The gen gen z, they they they they don't have a strategy for dealing with broccoli haircuts. And this is why we've been saying for so long, the broccoli haircuts are going to be a problem. They're not gonna be a problem for millennial unless, you know, unless they're making fun they they cry when a Gen z makes fun of you for watching Harry Potter every day. But it his it's it's it's just an unprecedented time. And what's happening now, we talked about this journey to self sovereignty running exclusively through a a SpaceX node from start nine,

21:47Rod Palmer is we have the rise of big Bitcoin. And this is not all boomers are crashing out about this, but the boomers who thought that they were special because they started listening to podcasts a couple of years ago, and they thought node running made them special or crashing out alongside Gen x, alongside millennials. I don't know about Gen z, what they're crashing out about. But big Bitcoin is rearing its ugly head. We've got this new consortium of of of Bitcoin security for Bitcoin development.

22:19Rod Palmer What this is new. This is a this might as well be breaking news. Like, what what are your thoughts on this rise of big Bitcoin? Because it seems like a steamroller is coming through, and it's too early to to to really determine that. But it seems like a steamroller is coming through, and it is

22:37Rod Palmer absolutely leaving a lot of collateral damage in the form of of, you know, plebs in its wake.

22:46Richard Greaser Well, I think this is a it's a lesson to never underestimate your enemy. Right? Like, there were a lot of people that were cheering and dancing, and they said that, you know, Podkoff was dead. And, you know, it was all over. They they they watched David Bailey's, knock a stock go down, and they they were dancing on NACA's grave. Big big Bitcoin is incredibly resilient, and I think that's something that is an important to, you know, understand. And I I think it's also

23:15Richard Greaser important to understand that, you know, plebs politically have almost zero power. And, you know, when you're taking on a a consortium like this, the the clubs aren't gonna accomplish a whole lot, defensively against them. And so

23:35Richard Greaser if anything, you know, the the the clubs, you know, fighting back against it is gonna strengthen it and, you know, make it more relevant. And so this is really, like, one of those situations important to crack open the art award by Sun Tzu. And, it is, I don't know. I mean, it it what what is strange in this situation, which, you know, I've been genuinely surprised by is, you know, big Bitcoin historically has seemed like it's more of a threat to the

24:08Richard Greaser kind of freedom oriented aspect of Bitcoin or the Bitcoin social movement. And now it seems like the roles have reversed and the plebs are acting more as a threat than big Bitcoin, and Bitcoin is. But yeah.

24:26Rod Palmer What? At the end, is I guess we'll get to the the truth and the nuance in the middle here in a moment, but the risk I see is big Bitcoin is well, Donald Trump, president Trump is by most people's definition,

24:46Rod Palmer at least tangentially connected to big Bitcoin. Right? I mean, it's many would argue that it's inseparable from big Bitcoin. And what Donald Trump this is he's a good example because a couple of years ago, the country voted

25:02Rod Palmer for Donald Trump for a second term over the Democratic Party, over Kamala Harris. We've lit no need to relitigate this, but the the important point is that people didn't vote to reelect Donald Trump in 2024 so much that because he was

25:20Rod Palmer the best candidate or a great candidate or he had good policy or people trusted him to enact his policies or because he had good ideas or he was a statesman and he had a vision. People voted for Donald Trump because the Democratic Party was so retarded and so stupid and so out of touch and just so

25:44Rod Palmer detached from reality that Donald Trump was like it was like a a protest about it. It's like, we think that Kamala Harris and the democrats are so fucking woke and retarded that we're gonna vote for Donald Trump just to watch them crash out. I mean, after Donald Trump won, a lot of people were like, especially Republicans, they were, for the first time,

26:06Rod Palmer turning on MSNBC and some of these news stations just so they could watch Rachel Maddow and Democrats, the libs, just totally crash out on the air. This is what's happening in the space, is that the plebs are so obnoxious and so retarded and just so detached from reality

26:26Rod Palmer that people are glazing big Bitcoin as just because it's it's the only other option. We'll take people are saying, we'll take anything else except the plebs. We do not you know, I think I saw a big Bitcoin tweet to comply or be ruled by plebs. And people are like, I'd rather comply than be ruled by plebs. I I don't want a future where I'm controlled by plebs. And Big Bitcoin sees this opportunity, and I think that they've come in and they announced their they really and then they put their dick on the table.

26:59Rod Palmer They flop their huge big Bitcoin dick on the table with this security consortium that Michael Saylor announced like BlackRock, Fidelity. Where's the lid? Let me let me find the list. It it is the the face of big Bitcoin are these companies. And people immediately

27:20Rod Palmer came out and said, Big Bitcoin is going to take over the protocol so they can fork it for quantum, security and they can steal Satoshi's coins. And everybody's mostly Plebslop, which is only helping big Bitcoin

27:37Rod Palmer entrench its power because everybody's response were, like, why they should why you should be against big Bitcoin is just utter gobbledygook. The block is a part of an Anchorage Digital, Coinbase,

27:52Rod Palmer Blockstream, Galaxy, Ark Invest, Cathie Wood. But for better or for worse, my take is that BlackRock and all these big Bitcoin brands saw what was going on, saw the PLEBSLOP,

28:07Rod Palmer saw BIP one ten, they looked at the code, they gasped at how sloppy it was, and they said, we don't know if we're gonna have to fork Bitcoin, steal Satoshi's coins, or whatever because quantum computers are gonna mess everything up. But we need the optionality to have the influence

28:29Rod Palmer and the the the the funding and the the the developers in place so that if that decision has to be made, we're making it, not plebs. They don't want the plebs to decide how to protect Bitcoin from quantum computers. Plebs don't understand

28:50Rod Palmer the difference between a a a default setting and and consensus of an abstract protocol level. They definitely don't understand quantum computers. We cannot let plebs protect our investment, which is it over in the hundreds of billions from from quantum computers. So they wanted the optionality. Now that optionality becomes the optionality to change anything. But they they definitely wanted, if nothing else, the option to prevent the plebs

29:19Rod Palmer from forking Bitcoin in the in the in the face of a threat from spam or quantum computers or whatever it was. And so it's too late to really stop it now. They've already made their move. So the reaction to it, plugs are gonna overreact,

29:36Rod Palmer and it seems to be helping Bitcoin. But how do layer two labs is crashing out because they know this is bad, but they can't figure out what to do. So they're lashing out. A lot of people are just lashing out. I don't know.

29:50Richard Greaser Yeah. It seems like most of the responses are are only making big Bitcoin once again seem more reasonable. It's it's exactly what you said. You know, comparing it to Donald Trump is, you know, the the the, the crash outs essentially made the opponent seem more reasonable. And this this seems to

30:12Richard Greaser be the case of, you know, how most things are decided in modern days. Whoever crashes out the the least becomes the victor. But both parties are crashing out, not really bringing a whole lot of value to the table, and it may actually be bringing something that is destructive. And, are there level heads? I don't know. Plans definitely don't have level heads, but,

30:38Richard Greaser it is concerning. I mean, it seems like there's there's a lot of economic power that big Bitcoin has, and there's no economic power that the plums have. But the plums for a while had social power and social capital

30:56Richard Greaser that they had been able to leverage in the past in order to influence things happening in Bitcoin. But now it seems like they are burning all of their social capital that they had. The sailor used to glaze the plebs. Now he's mocking them.

31:17Rod Palmer Yeah. I mean, that's that is one of the major pivots that we've chronicled over the past, I don't know, less than a year is Saylor,

31:31Rod Palmer he used to cater to the feelings and the emotions of the plaids and the Bitcoin industry. And it that's just not the case anymore. I mean, Michael Saylor has his his patience has run dry with blood slop. It's a monster that he created. I mean, Sailor is

31:53Rod Palmer the the architect of of modern Plebslop and AI slop, and he's seen what his create so it's like Frankenstein's monster. It's it's Sailor's Plebslop. And he doesn't like what he sees, and he's trying to course correct. He's trying to protect his investment from being absolutely destroyed and gutted

32:12Rod Palmer by the plex lot that he created. And there's gonna be a lot more pivots, and you talked about this. One of the one of the, I don't know, highlights, but notable events last week was me creations pivoted from being a Nazi, a Bitcoin 10 proponent to becoming for lack of a he's just big Bitcoin. He's big he's he's now ride or die with big Bitcoin.

32:36Rod Palmer But based on his his social media posts past few days, he does seem to be losing momentum and enthusiasm.

32:49Rod Palmer He seems to be reacting to a marginal decrease in the glaze he was getting when he first pivoted, being frustrated. And this is not this is not surprising. I think a lot of people are going to this I mean, think about it. Like, when you pivot to a healthy lifestyle or you pivot from fiat to Bitcoin or you pivot whatever and you change your lifestyle, there's this, you know, endorphin rush, a high that you get. You feel like you're making the right choices. You're on the right path. You're gaining new friends. People are glazing the shit out of you. You're a new guy on the team. They want you to stick around.

33:25Rod Palmer They they want you to stay involved, and then that slowly starts to dwindle. And some people suggest that maybe meat creation spent or over leveraged his social capital that he gained from being one of the first plebs to pivot. And he, you know, maybe he's making enemies a little bit too fast. Maybe he is, you know, maybe he's just he's running into problems that he's just not equipped to face because he hasn't taken the time to put in the work to to to face them.

33:55Richard Greaser Totally. It's, you know, reminds me of, recovering alcoholics in a lot of ways where, you know, they they get glazed at first. Like, a recovering alcoholic, you know, once they're so proud of themselves when they get sober. Right?

34:11Richard Greaser They're patting themselves on the back everywhere they go. You know, people are so proud of them too. And then, you know, it comes a point where it just gets old. It's like, okay, you changed your life. Now you're now you're acting like a normal person. Like, no normal people can, like, handle their shit. Right? Their lives don't become incredibly, unproductive and and dysfunctional,

34:33Richard Greaser because of because of drinking. It's like, okay. Did now now you become on the level of a normal person. It's really, it it's not as impressive of a feat as they make it out to be. And it's like this is the same thing with, like, BIP one ten. It's like, it's not that impressive to not support BIP one ten. It's like the the initial changes, like, yeah, you know, congratulations,

34:58Richard Greaser neat creations. Like, you're back to zero. You're not in the, like, negative 15 anymore.

35:08Rod Palmer And this this is, I think, where the problem kind of comes in regarding the bit one ten thing, is a lot of plebs, you know, and not just plebs, but mostly plebs. They they put all their eggs in one basket at the protocol level and

35:31Rod Palmer at the emotional level, at the at the personal level. They made being a node runner and

35:39Rod Palmer saving Bitcoin from this existential threat of c stand and spam and whatever it is, like this mass formation psychosis that they developed as a community about spam and the monetary use case. They they

35:55Rod Palmer the the arbitrary data use case. They they love they they throw out these jargon terms, very like, stuff that people in in normal life would absolutely have no idea what they're talking about. And they've they've emotionally,

36:13Rod Palmer personally, and professional, whatever, put all their eggs in one basket, and it's the success of BIP one ten is now, like, their success. If BIP one ten fails, Bitcoin fails. If BIP one ten fails, their lives, their future, the the the Bitcoin or the money they save for the future dies with it. It's it they don't see a future outside of a BIP one ten

36:38Rod Palmer activating successfully. So if they don't if if they have no concept, if they have no imagination of of their own success, their own stability

36:53Rod Palmer outside of this narrow band of very unlikely up outcome. And I guess the it's from that perspective, the crash outs, I would call them irrational, but it they make a lot more sense.

37:11Richard Greaser Yeah. Well, it is something I I talked about in, my article on PubSlop that I did. You know, I was defining what PubSlop was, you know, a while ago is there's generalizations that that these people say oftentimes. Like, you know, they they say good for Bitcoin or bad for Bitcoin,

37:30Richard Greaser but there's not a clear definition of what that means. They hear these things, you know, from from influencers, and it can be interpreted a million different ways. One person might walk away and think that bad for Bitcoin means,

37:46Richard Greaser you know, the the blockchain is getting larger at a certain rate. Another person might walk away thinking bad for Bitcoin means the price is going down. Another person may walk away, thinking that, you know, sailors are buying too much Bitcoin. It's just it it's a very, like, vague term. And so when you are defining things that are important for you or, like, goals that you have in life or, like, a mission that you're part of, like, trying to help and, you know, it it's kinda goal. Like, there there needs to be a clear definition

38:23Richard Greaser of of what it is. And, like, this idea of, like, good or bad for Bitcoin is, it's a framing that I don't think is helpful for an individual, you know, to be determining whether or not they're they're happy or not based on, you know, the surroundings around them because it's not really definable in a sense of, like, okay. It's, like, is it good or bad for you?

38:49Richard Greaser You know, and and when things that happen in the world around you that are bad for you, the the answer isn't necessarily to to crash out. It's to adjust your strategy and, attempt to take some corrective action in order to get there. And I think this is, like, where where they're getting stuck for sure. It's like they they have,

39:15Richard Greaser they haven't planned or accepted the the the potential for failure and or whatever their goals were. And and I don't think they've clearly defined their goals in a way that they they can win. I think it's part of it. And they don't and and they don't have

39:33Rod Palmer or they refuse to acknowledge the evidence. They they don't clubs are not pragmatic. We there's no pragmatic clubs. And I think I I think that I don't know if this will be the last episode that we talked about bip one ten and Plebsilop. Of course, it won't be the last time we talked about Plebsilop. Greg Dink. We if there's any doubt, I I know that people don't follow this stuff as closely as we do.

39:59Rod Palmer So I just wanna, like, get into this. So the the activation of BIP one ten is scheduled sent like, the mandatory signaling period is set to begin, and I don't have the block item right in front of me, but it it's expected to happen sometime around August 8. And unless the the difficulty in the hash rate dramatically changes, it'll that's when it'll probably occur. And some people think based on their

40:23Rod Palmer the way they talk that that, you know, it's a it's a coin toss. Will PIP one time 60 or not? Some people are very sure that it will. But it's it's important to define success or activation and what that means, and it's also important to look at the tools we have to gauge the the probability. So I'm gonna just

40:47Rod Palmer read what we see here. We're looking I'm looking at the predicts, predicts.com, predudyx. So the the first prediction market by predicts on BIP one ten activating has been open for

41:03Rod Palmer most of this year. I think the one originally was launched last year when it was bit four four four, and they had, like, a target activation or whatever of, like, March 2026 within they scrapped that, moved it to August, which is coming up September for the final date. So this market,

41:22Rod Palmer the will BIT one ten activate and be enforced by Bitcoin on the the most proof of work chain between September 1 and 09/07/2026? So what this the liquidity right here is up to 2,000,000 SaaS, and the trading volume is now up to

41:47Rod Palmer 3.5 a little bit more than 3.5 Bitcoin and over 16,000 trades. And the likelihood of bit one ten success on this market, the most liquid, the most traded market that exists, there's no futures market for Bitcoins, there's only this prediction market. This is the falling market of of of Bitcoin 10, has been sitting around 10%. It it's kinda gone between

42:12Rod Palmer four or 5% and as high as maybe 18% at different times. But it it's the it's average out about 10%, about 10% success. And that's one market. That's the biggest one. That's the one that tells you the odds. You can kinda glean some how accurate this one is by looking at some of the other ones. So what will the peak hash signaling for BIP one ten be by September

42:39Rod Palmer 2026? Now this one is only 68,000 sat trading volume, but at 77%, the best chance for the highest for the key cash rate to signal BIP one ten is below 5%.

42:57Rod Palmer And then you have another one, two hundred and seventy thousand SAPS trading volume. Will a top five Bitcoin mining pool signal BIP one ten before August 1? That one is at 3.5% chance. We have 340,000 trading volume on the market.

43:16Rod Palmer Will BIP one ten lock in before activation? And if you look back at Taproot and SegWit, both of these were that can you know, wide consensus, they were very popular. The community bought in. Mandatory signaling began. The threshold

43:33Rod Palmer was reached, for signaling before the the activation time out. But will a but will it this happen again for a bit one ten? Less than a 10% chance. Another market, a top 10 US Bitcoin ETF issuer files an SEC disclosure addressing a bit one ten chain split, less than 9%.

43:56Rod Palmer Will say well, this one's already over. Will say, we'll support BIP one ten. No. Will O'Dowd admit he was wrong about BIP one ten? Less than 5%. And there's a few others. There's a there's will, you know,

44:12Rod Palmer will not overtake core as the most, popular client. Will, the BIP $1.10 coin be listed on an exchange? Again, less than 10%. So the prediction markets where people are actually putting money on the line based on their information, based on how closely they follow this, based on how well they understand how the protocol works, they're all telling you, no. This had this is dead in the water. So why do people

44:40Rod Palmer like Luke and some of the top not student tenants speak so confidently about why this will activate? Because activation can occur. They they would these guys can activate BIP one ten on their blood nodes without reaching 55 and enforce it on their nodes, and they've been threatening, you know, to recheck the miner's locks that don't comply. But this is where the chain split occurs. So a chain split doesn't mean that BIP one ten didn't activate successfully on a BIP one ten client node,

45:12Rod Palmer But it does mean that anybody who's following that potentially, especially without replay protection, could lose it all. It could be whether your node forks off and you're a miner and you're you're wasting hash mining blocks that get rejected where you sell your Bitcoin and, you know, there's there's just there's just a there's a still a litany of of potential risks here.

45:36Rod Palmer But it's the there's another one. What percentage of the Foundry USA? We talked about that vote. Right now, it's a 66%

45:45Rod Palmer chance that it is below 1% signaling. And we have heard rumors that that is most likely the case that so far they've not had almost anybody in foundry pool vote to signal BIP one ten. So this is dead in the water. Like, this is why the people are crashing out, and people reject these prediction markets, but these are the best tools that we've got. I don't know. I mean, do you have a does the

46:16Rod Palmer do you have any argument that would or devil's advocate that you could play here to speculate on the odds being different from what the markets are telling us?

46:27Richard Greaser I think they're much

46:29Rod Palmer higher. I think the odds are much higher? Of of you think that you so that's what I was gonna say. I would say the biggest market, the one that we should probably just focus on now, is about 10%. I think that's a it it's clearly being manipulated if you look at the the comment section of that market. There's, like, a couple of people who are buying and posting in the comments and a lot of bravado, a lot of flex slop. But, yeah, I I I think 10% is too. I think if you buy at the 10% odds right now, you're still, you know, you're still buying dollars for 90¢.

47:05Rod Palmer Still maybe worth it to buy on there.

47:09Richard Greaser Yeah. I just I don't know. It's, I think I probably talked about it on the on the show before. I do I just think people's understanding of what's happening here is completely wrong. And I think individuals like, you know, mister Hoddle per se is,

47:30Richard Greaser you know, wasting a lot of time treating this as if it's some sort of technical argument and engaging it it when it's really just kind of a a social phenomenon that is happening in which there's more at stake. The the strongest proponents of the of this, you know, phenomenon have have zero

47:57Richard Greaser understanding of what's happening. But I don't know. I mean, I I I don't really think that there are tremendous risks in regards to their not being replay protection because the individuals that,

48:14Richard Greaser you know, would be potentially sending their coins and and and and losing them in this scenario, or just facing a potential issue. Like, they they don't actually use Bitcoin. So I did I feel like it's, like, minimal chances of

48:36Richard Greaser potential blowback here. But it's,

48:39Rod Palmer I don't know. No. It yeah. Hey. Yeah. The the there's yeah. We could honestly get into this a little bit more, which is part of, you know, like Bitcoin Cash. In hindsight, it was you know, it failed spectacularly

48:56Rod Palmer depending on your perspective, but there's still some value. You could still sell a BCash coin for a few $100. I mean, and for a while there, it was a few thousand dollars and it was the the delta between Bitcoin's price and BCash's price was far less wide, and it's still around,

49:16Rod Palmer almost ten years later. But part of that is because the people who the Bitcoin Cash proponents were very serious. Like, they many of them before the four were, like, we're selling our coins. We don't want small blocks. Like, we want the big blocks. We want b cash.

49:35Rod Palmer Bitcoin cash. And they did. They sold, and they put their money where the mouth was. These were Bitcoin miners. These were economic actors, businesses, real, like, meaningful investors, like, who had meaningful amounts of of UTXOs. The bit $1.10 side, far less. I mean,

49:56Rod Palmer none of them really will commit to following and and mining on their their pledging. None of them really will commit to selling their Bitcoin for their

50:08Rod Palmer B dash, as some people are calling it, B dash junior. None of very few of them, there's only a handful of them that are holding up and propping up the prediction market. The rest of them call it gambling. To call the to call that market gambling is a misnomer, and it reveals that they don't believe what they're saying. If you think

50:28Rod Palmer that they activate the successful activation of Pip one ten and, you know, putting money on that on a prediction market is gambling, they're saying you don't believe essentially that you're going to win. If you're saying it's at best a a coin toss, which is not how prediction market outcome that's not how these things work. Like, it it's one ten will either has consensus, has signaling, has support, and will activate successfully and be enforced on the main chain

51:01Rod Palmer by by September where it won't. It's not a gamble. It's not a who knows, maybe God will come in and and make Bitcoin forked in this direction. It's either going to happen or it's not based on certain metrics that we kinda listed a bunch of them, minor hash signaling, node count, the economic nodes, the buy in from

51:23Rod Palmer a broad set of the industry, the activation threshold, like, all all this stuff. It's a take these metrics. You plug it in, you get the probabilities. They call it gambling, which means they don't understand what they're even doing. And this is, again, like, this is where this is the kayfabe. Right? Like, this bravado, this arrogance, this certainty, that they project that doesn't have any backing in the hash rate or these prediction markets. Prediction markets, like I've said before, reveal kayfabe.

51:51Rod Palmer If if everybody if somebody's so sure of something, so confident, but they won't even put a 100,000 sass on it, that that's a disconnect. So, yeah, there there's a million reasons why it will fail. There's a million reasons why they say they don't think it will fail or that they're very confident that it will work.

52:11Rod Palmer But you just the market doesn't you know, you take all the stuff into consideration. It's it's very clear that these guys don't know what they're doing. They don't know what they're talking about. They don't really use Bitcoin, at least not at the scale work extent that, you know, Coinbase or entrepreneurs or cipher whatever that is, miners, mining tools, like, it's it's like the it's like

52:39Rod Palmer college kids or high school kids crashing out and and protesting. They have no stake in society. They don't know how society is run. They don't know how the rules work. They're just emotionally lashing out, and they want to punish somebody who they've decided is a cause of their problems, their heartache, their sadness, their depression, their lack of glaze, whatever it is, and they're and they want to cause a burden or stress or to rub the spammers as they put it. It's it's really it's all.

53:10Richard Greaser Well, what exactly is happening right now is people engaging in the discussion. It's like, you go in and argue with clubs about this shit. It's kinda like Ben Shapiro when he went and argued with the retarded liberal college students on campus. It's it it they have no idea what they're talking about. Like, their their their heads are just being filled with programming,

53:34Richard Greaser inserted by somebody else, by the by the Rhodes College professors, by, you know, individuals funded by wealthy, you know, well funded NGOs or, you know, whoever. Like, there there there's public masters behind the scenes pulling the strings. It's not very clear who they are. And so, you know, everybody watching, you know, to recap again to what we're talking about earlier is, like, the you know, people are like, okay. Like, big Bitcoin seems interesting

54:04Richard Greaser and reasonable. Like, you remember, like, Ben Shapiro used to look interesting and reasonable. Now everybody hates him, and he's retarded because he, like, he never had anything of value to say or was interesting. It's just, like, these woke college kids were just so dumb. He he seemed he seemed reasonable. And, like, going and engaging and debating the plebs in this scenario, it's it's the exact same thing. It's it's not addressing who the puppet masters are behind the scenes. Like, what is the

54:35Richard Greaser the outcome of what's happening here? It's delegitimization of an institution for for reasons that are not even, like, probably accurate or reasonable. It's like tearing down Bitcoin core because Gloria has sex. Like, is that a real reason to tear down, you know, to to, you know,

54:59Richard Greaser be bickering about spam and and relay policy. Like, they, you know, they're they're they're virtue signaling this idea of of not relaying tracks transactions, but you're storing them on your node once they're confirmed in the blockchain by other people. There there from a technical standpoint, it's just gobbly goog. It's very silly. But from, like, a social standpoint, there there are some very clear things that are happening

55:28Richard Greaser in all of this. One of which is that many of the most passionate advocates for Bitcoin become the most negative, mouthpieces against it, ultimately, from an

55:44Richard Greaser optic standpoint. They're out there, you know, where it is in the past. They were plump slopping about how you need to buy it because separating money from state, you know, and the Federal Reserve, you know, dollars are melting ice cube. You know, they're pub swapping about all of that. Now they're now they're telling everybody that'll listen, that it's taken over, that centralized,

56:08Richard Greaser that that you're storing CSAM on your little Raspberry Pi. So that's one of the impacts that's happened from this that I think is important to look at. And if you look at, like, b cache, you could say that b cache wasn't successful

56:27Richard Greaser in the sense of, like, they they forked and it become the predominant coin. But in in many ways, it was the same thing that happened prior, was these individuals that were promoting using Bitcoin as money were hanging out in a lot of

56:44Richard Greaser subcultural groups, hanging out in the in the fringes of society where, you know, Bitcoin could be used productively and people could get excited about it. And then all of a sudden, the individuals that are in the fringes become

57:04Richard Greaser incredibly disenchanted with it, and they get they get blasted from both sides of, you know, the Roger Ver, BCash type people, but then also the shitcoiners. And so their heads are spinning. You know, they they take one look, one pass at Bitcoin, write it off because they heard some sort of plug slot block stream conspiracy completely

57:30Richard Greaser negating it in their minds, and they're they're not gonna do any more research because they they they'd rather, watch Jeff Berwick jerk himself off on stage than listen to forty hours a week at Bitcoin podcast. And, so I I don't know. I mean, it's interesting. It's just the the the oftentimes, the stated goals of these things could be dramatically different than what the actual goals

57:57Richard Greaser of them are. And

58:00Rod Palmer Yeah. I think one of the one of the topics that was hoping to get into this week, but I think is better to save for our next recording is, what is the space? What is this culture? What is this, discourse? What does the mission what does all this look like going forward?

58:21Rod Palmer Obviously, things are not going back to the way they were. Big Sean Harris is not gonna recover his social capital. A lot of people aren't. A lot of people are gonna be wiped out. It's it's gonna be a social capital jubilee, potentially, but

58:40Rod Palmer it's it's gonna look different. Things are gonna look different. The way that people react and maneuver and, you know, adversarially interact with with big Bitcoin's gonna change. It's gonna have to change. The threats are gonna be much bigger. And the the solutions and the defense, like, that's gonna the the ideas are gonna have to be much more thermodynamically sound. They're gonna have to be much more practical,

59:06Rod Palmer much more realistic, and much more you know, just not ClubSlop is is running at running into its end of life. It's going to expire. It's already expired, honestly. Right? It's the new use just like the first turning. What are the institutions?

59:25Rod Palmer What are the memes? What are the podcasts? What are they gonna look like for the first turning? Because a lot of us joined the first turning a while ago. A lot of us flipped the fourth turning behind us a while ago. The rest of you, the rest of us, the first turning begins in August whether you want to or not.

59:47Rod Palmer And Big Bitcoin has a head start. So in the AI surveillance state, we didn't even get into that today, but that's coming. So we're gonna think about what comes next. But, yeah, I've got I've gotta catch a plane. I'm headed to a Glaze conference, so I gotta go cover that. But, yeah, a lot to think about.

1:00:12Rod Palmer There's still some alpha. There's still some money to be made on the prediction markets if you know the BIP one ten will fail. So get it while the getting's good. Absolutely.

1:00:25Richard Greaser It's getting hairy out there, folks. And, I don't know what the next couple weeks will look like. It it it's gonna be a slop storm, so we'll we'll, I think next week, we'll probably be talking about the slop storm and then be talking about the aftermath after that. But I don't know. That's just it's it's entertaining. To say the least, I'm entertained. I I hope that you're entertained. But I also know that a good portion of people are kind of, tuning out, and there will be an awesome opportunity

1:00:56Richard Greaser to enjoy White Gut Goi Summer and to tune out here in the near future with Lake Satoshi. But, yeah, I mean, there's things on the horizon like the the AI surveillance state. I've been scrolling on Instagram, and it's been interesting because seeing a lot of memes about cutting flop cameras down. So I I don't really know if it's happening or not, but, you know,

1:01:22Richard Greaser it's just weird to to go on Instagram and see tutorials on how to cut font cameras down. Just it's different. It's unique. But, yeah. Put out

1:01:37Richard Greaser paid subscriber episode a little bit ago, and I'm gonna I have a episode release or not released, but recorded with Max from Convertible Misfits that I will be publishing here shortly after this drops. But there is

1:01:58Richard Greaser during times like this, when things are crazy, when when it looks like big Bitcoin or big pharma or big, you know, whatever the big conglomerate is, that is pressing down against your spirit, threatening to make life difficult for you,

1:02:20Richard Greaser when when tyranny is in the air. I think it's important to understand that tyranny is unnatural. It is one of those things that can only push so far because it takes a lot of energy

1:02:41Richard Greaser to uphold. And so I did they just while things on the horizon look bleak at some ways, the future looks difficult, potentially.

1:02:55Richard Greaser There are opportunities, and it is not over. And, like, there's a lot of reasons to be hopeful. But, anyways, that being said, let's get into the found boost folks. First boost from late stage huddle said, have fun at least, Satoshi. Sorry. I won't be there this year. Well,

1:03:14Richard Greaser you will be missed quite a bit. I was really bummed when I saw this. Like, I I almost crashed out myself when I saw this in the group chat late stage. So we will miss you, and, looking forward to to catching up. Maybe I'll have to, give you a call on my way out there. Orange mark five thousand says, said, beagleers, remember to hit the share on nostril button when you send a boost. It's the best way to spread the signal and mock the plugs.

1:03:44Richard Greaser Because let's be real. If you boost a podcast and don't flex on the timeline, did it even happen? Yeah. It's a good point. It's one of my favorite things is, you know, when I when I go and boost the podcast, people can see it on the on the Nostril timeline, and they it it's nice to share, especially since the the Beagle account has gained a little bit more followers after Maxi Madness. So, yeah, I mean, it's definitely one of those things that is incredibly helpful. It is one of the coolest features that Fountain has come out with, if not the coolest feature is the ability the integration with Oster. I mean, it's just it's really useful from a creator standpoint. So, yeah, I mean, definitely a huge thing. Like, if you comment with the with the podcast link or, you know, anything like that, if you ever you're in Oster,

1:04:36Richard Greaser even if you don't boost it, it still post up the episodes. It's pretty useful. Thanks for pointing that out. Orange mark. Used to read a lot. 5,000 sat. Always a pleasure. Appreciate you. Sasha, 4,444 sat is great. Show interesting times for sure.

1:04:54Richard Greaser Stack Gerald, 21 header sats is Kimmy k three. Rev HODL, 420 sats. I will spend the rest of my days searching for the mother of all nodes. Hashtag 40 h b w. Yeah. Mother of all, I I just wonder how much power it has. Side of Stormbrack, a 121 says, join a cult, have lots of sex, run your truth nodes, gatekeep the blockchain. Are you in the influencer class, Tallaglaze Maxine, people weekly news forever?

1:05:25Richard Greaser Dosto Gang, a 101 says says, I am sometimes naked while listening to Bitcoin podcast. BTC on board. So a 100¢. Thumbs up emoji salute. Thumbs up emoji. I think one of the I've been reluctant

1:05:44Richard Greaser to call what we're experiencing right now a war. I mean, I guess, in in many ways, it's culture war. They wanna call it the node wars. I would call it the slop wars. But one of the characteristics of a war is being so intensely

1:06:02Richard Greaser into it that you have trouble seeing what the future will look like afterwards. And I I think, socially, we're all a little bit uncertain. There's gonna be some serious repercussions of fallout for it. Hopefully, people are prepared to accept the consequences for their behavior. And, I know we are. You know, we have no issues with reporting the news.

1:06:30Richard Greaser And I think we've done it effectively, and I feel good by standing by everything that we've done. But I know, you know, it's been funny because there's been some people that claim to be keeping receipts. It's just nice that somebody has a backup of of our our bangers. Hopefully, more people keep keep receipts on us. But, yeah, thank you to our subscribers, Dave, Charlie Roger, Jason. He used to read it a lot. Lahav,

1:06:57Richard Greaser BGC onboard, Boomer, Fundamentals, Sean, Open Mic, and Avi Burra. Appreciate you guys, and try and get some more premium content

1:07:09Richard Greaser out to you guys soon. Thank you, folks, for listening to Beagle Weekly, and we'll catch you next.

1:07:19Unknown Yeah. Bitch, I'm watching them burning bridges. Yeah. Yeah. Sometimes you have no choice but to take the role of a villain. When the plebs lost their minds and cooked ideas need killing. Do a line of code before I take on that whole coalition. Test

1:08:32Unknown your salty tears. Fighter pilots in space is crying like little girls claiming that spam is a reason to be clutching it pearls. Tried thinking for yourself that be a plot twist. Sloppers tell you to jump. You don't even When you keep acting a fool, people will remember. Gloria is high, yet they still are condemned or just kill some brain cells listening to luke de wolf. I hear the sex isn't even good in their cult. Copy paste conviction isn't something to flex. Getting Getting glazed by bots isn't the same as having respect.

1:09:18Unknown Y'all treating bibs like celebrity fan fiction. No one with cognitive dissonance drowning in contradiction. Telegraphing their demise if the civil attack doesn't work. It's liking they're trying to give reasons for the giggler or smirk. I'm watching them burn their bridges. Getting lost in the saws. Firmware is glitching. I'm watching them burn their bridges. It will make him slightly

1:10:01Unknown less.