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Bull Market Euphoria Watch
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diff --git a/wiki/storylines/bull-market-euphoria.md b/wiki/storylines/bull-market-euphoria.md new file mode 100644 index 00000000..81a67ca4 @@ -0,0 +1,563 @@ +--- +title: Bull Market Euphoria Watch +type: storyline +status: confirmed +kind: theme +span: 2024-04 to 2026-06 +aliases: + - Bull Market Bugle + - Bugle Bull Market + - Bull Market Bitcoin podcast + - NGU +related: + - chartboi-punditry + - everything-is-fine + - spot-etf-saga + - matt-odell-arc +sources: + - raw/episodes/the-influencer-super-cycle-bugle-weekly-episode-5/bundle.json + - raw/episodes/democracy-dies-in-darkness-with-party-bent-bugle-weekly-episode-8/bundle.json + - raw/episodes/vaccinating-bitcoin-derangement-syndrome-bugle-weekly-episode-10/bundle.json + - raw/episodes/the-intellectual-silk-road-bugle-weekly-episode-13/bundle.json + - raw/episodes/the-calm-before-the-storm-bugle-weekly-episode-18/bundle.json + - raw/episodes/satoshi-would-be-proud-bugle-weekly-episode-19/bundle.json + - raw/episodes/the-economy-is-still-fine-bugle-weekly-episode-21/bundle.json + - raw/episodes/outrunning-hypersonic-missiles-bugle-weekly-episode-26/bundle.json + - raw/episodes/orange-berets-march-in-bugle-weekly-episode-28/bundle.json + - raw/episodes/this-is-the-bull-market-bugle-weekly-episode-35/bundle.json + - raw/episodes/dont-stop-your-enemy-from-pumping-your-bags-bugle-weekly-episode-36/bundle.json + - raw/episodes/sly-goomba-thanksgiving-special-behind-the-podcast-episode-1/bundle.json + - raw/episodes/thanksgiving-victory-lap-bugle-weekly-episode-37/bundle.json + - raw/episodes/shinobi-is-hot-behind-the-podcast-episode-2/bundle.json + - raw/episodes/the-first-responders-and-compliance-salesmen-bugle-weekly-episode-38/bundle.json + - raw/episodes/satoshi-is-jewish-behind-the-podcast-episode-3/bundle.json + - raw/episodes/jason-lowerys-drones-bugle-weekly-episode-39/bundle.json + - raw/episodes/onwards-and-upwards-bugle-weekly-episode-41/bundle.json + - raw/episodes/build-back-better-with-mike-behind-the-podcast-episode-7/bundle.json + - raw/episodes/the-future-is-wrapped-bugle-weekly-episode-44/bundle.json + - raw/episodes/40-hours-per-week-bugle-weekly-episode-45/bundle.json + - raw/episodes/fixing-the-cias-incentives-with-frank-corva-behind-the-podcast-episode-9/bundle.json + - raw/episodes/dont-tell-me-where-to-meme-with-yellow-behind-the-podcast-episode-11/bundle.json + - raw/episodes/is-this-the-god-candle-bugle-weekly-episode-49/bundle.json + - raw/episodes/let-the-festivities-begin-bugle-weekly-episode-51/bundle.json + - raw/episodes/we-know-whats-going-on-bugle-weekly-episode-54/bundle.json + - raw/episodes/bugle-easter-special-bugle-weekly-episode-56/bundle.json + - raw/episodes/canada-needs-40hpw-with-joey-temprile-behind-the-podcast-episode-15/bundle.json + - raw/episodes/boomers-shitcoining-in-vegas-bugle-weekly-episode-61/bundle.json + - raw/episodes/spamming-vegas-livestream-with-fundamentals-and-erin-redwing/bundle.json + - raw/episodes/boomers-sacrificing-to-moloch-bugle-weekly-episode-68/bundle.json + - raw/episodes/the-orange-pill-is-not-ozempic-bugle-weekly-episode-69/bundle.json + - raw/episodes/this-time-is-different-bugle-weekly-episode-70/bundle.json + - raw/episodes/back-in-the-saddle-podcasting-again-bugle-weekly-episode-71/bundle.json + - raw/episodes/pioneering-v4v-music-with-open-mike-btp-episode-21/bundle.json + - raw/episodes/humor-knotzi-police-state-bugle-weekly-episode-73/bundle.json + - raw/episodes/pioneers-run-economic-nodes-bugle-weekly-episode-74/bundle.json + - raw/episodes/life-isnt-easy-bugle-weekly-episode-76/bundle.json + - raw/episodes/from-grumpy-to-gleeful-with-matt-odell-btp-episode-23/bundle.json + - raw/episodes/a-vibes-revival-with-walker-america-btp-episode-25/bundle.json + - raw/episodes/reflections-from-the-frontier-bugle-weekly-episode-83-part-2/bundle.json + - raw/episodes/happy-thanksgiving-bugle-weekly-episode-86/bundle.json + - raw/episodes/navigating-holiday-family-division-bugle-weekly-episode-87/bundle.json + - raw/episodes/year-in-review-bugle-weekly-episode-91/bundle.json + - raw/episodes/2026-starts-with-a-bang-bugle-weekly-episode-92/bundle.json + - raw/episodes/the-madness-begins-bugle-weekly-episode-101/bundle.json + - raw/episodes/is-trump-taking-ibogaine-bugle-weekly-episode-106/bundle.json + - raw/episodes/white-goy-summer-headwinds-bugle-weekly-episode-112/bundle.json + - raw/episodes/sportsball-is-back-baby-bugle-weekly-episode-113/bundle.json +--- + +The Bull Market Euphoria Watch is the Bugleverse's longest-running arc: the +continuous, load-bearing project of establishing that number is about to go up. +It is not price coverage. Price is the one thing the arc consistently declines to +measure — the show prices Bitcoin in cigarettes, in Lyn Alden's hotness, in +podcast headcount, in USDT, and in wives' breast implants, but almost never in a +number it is willing to be held to. Across two years [[characters/rod-palmer|Rod +Palmer]] and [[characters/richard-greaser|Richard Greaser]] declare the bull +market arrived, arriving, imminent, ordained, delayed, mispriced, and finally +over — without ever conceding that any of these declarations contradicted the +last. + +The arc's engine is that euphoria is treated as an input to price rather than an +output of it. Bears are not wrong; they are morally deficient, and the show +proposes to fix them. Grumpiness is a clinical condition. Podcasters quitting is +a cause of drawdown. And the God candle is a matter of federal regulatory +definition. + +**Who's in it:** [[characters/rod-palmer|Rod Palmer]] · +[[characters/richard-greaser|Richard Greaser]] · [[characters/matt-odell|Matt +Odell]] · [[characters/shinobi|Shinobi]] · [[characters/lyn-alden|Lyn Alden]] · +[[characters/dennis-porter|Dennis Porter]] · [[characters/pastor-jeffs|Pastor +Jeffs]] · [[characters/marty-bent|Marty Bent]] · +[[characters/michael-saylor|Michael Saylor]] + +**Related:** [[storylines/chartboi-punditry]] · [[storylines/everything-is-fine]] +· [[storylines/spot-etf-saga]] · [[storylines/matt-odell-arc]] + +## The doctrine (2024) + +The theology precedes the bull market by seven months. Greaser states the faith +plainly by inverting the standard Bitcoin conversion narrative: where the cliché +has one come for the tech and stay for the revolution, "I ended up staying for +the NGU because the tech wasn't interesting enough."[^ngu-faith] Palmer supplies +the eschatology — Bitcoin has already won — and delivers it without ornament: +"Bitcoin has already won."[^already-won] The mechanism by which any given week's +news becomes proof is [[characters/parker-lewis|Parker Lewis]]'s "gradually, then +suddenly," which Palmer invokes whenever headlines pile up: "This is this is what +part Parker Lewis had promised us. This is the, the suddenly phase."[^suddenly] + +The evidence offered for victory is never adoption or price. It is ad budgets and +conference grooming — [[characters/tucker-carlson|Tucker Carlson]] sponsorships, +[[characters/iggy-azalea|Iggy Azalea]], frosted tips — with one decisive metric: +"You're now outspending Pfizer in terms of, of ad spend in in the in the +mainstream media."[^pfizer] By Nashville the suddenly phase is dated to a queue: +"now that Bitcoin has already won and that we're in the suddenly phase," the +proof being that plebs must line up in the street to see a podcaster they could +once approach directly.[^nashville] + +The same year supplies the arc's two structural devices. Bad news is +reclassified rather than absorbed — the August 2024 crash becomes "just game +theory. I mean, sometimes game theory is a little scary"[^game-theory] — and the +bull market is always next month, a calendar bit Greaser runs as "October and +then Pumfember."[^pumfember] + +> irl: "Pumfember" is ASR mangling of a Pump-vember portmanteau; the show's +> transcripts render it as one word throughout. + +The 2024 opening also establishes the arc's most durable antagonist. In *The +Influencer Super Cycle*, Greaser's thesis is that Odell's stay-humble posting is +a drag on price, and that the fix is cosmetic: "We'd be we'd be at a 100 k right +now, guaranteed, if Matt Odell was a girl."[^odell-girl] The episode's title +prediction is that women arriving in Bitcoin will import simps with $25-a-week +DCAs on [[sponsors/swan-bitcoin|Swan]] — "I think this is coming this cycle. +Like, this is the cycle we get female influencers"[^super-cycle] — and its +closing indictment fuses both threads: "there's two things I struggle with him +on. One, that he's not a woman, and two," he tells people to stay humble.[^two-things] +From it the show derives its standing rule that the worst advice available is to +stay humble in a bull market. + +Even the arc's darkest 2024 beat is an NGU argument. Assassination is reframed as +an accumulation strategy: attackers "don't need to steal your Bitcoin because +theirs immediately, you know, theirs becomes more valuable."[^hypersonic] And +[[characters/david-bailey|David Bailey]] is cast as the man who will personally +usher in the God candle at Nashville, a prophecy the cold open states as +schedule.[^bailey] + +## THIS IS THE BULL MARKET (November 2024) + +Episode 35 is the arc's hinge, and it declares victory in cigarettes. Greaser +opens: "I'm so fucking pumped. This is the bull market. This is this is the +moment, everyone, where cigarettes,"[^this-is-bm] and immediately reports the +milestone that actually matters — "One cigarette is 1,000 sats,"[^cig-parity] +pinned to USDT briefly touching 1,000 sats. + +The show responds to the bull market as a branding opportunity. It announces a +January 2025 retooling to report everything "from a bull market perspective" and +floats renaming itself: "I like I like the ring of Bull Market +Bugle."[^bull-market-bugle] Price predictions escalate past the point of +denomination — Palmer calls a million and is overruled as a bear: "That's such a +bearish prediction. I I I stand by my $2,000,000,000,000" per +coin.[^two-trillion] Palmer coins the frame the arc runs on for two years: "bull +markets are a celebration of noticing things, and there's gonna be so much +noticing in the next few years."[^noticing] + +Hyperbitcoinization is given a definition, and it is aesthetic. Greaser's stated +end state is that the world "agrees that when Alden is hot,"[^alden-hot] +replacing the Kardashian beauty standard — the [[memes/lyn-alden-is-hot]] meme +elevated to terminal goal. Proof of being early is reframed as tax liability: +Greaser wants the Democrat/Republican/Libertarian-crossed-out shirt reissued with +"words crossed out. And then the bottom that says Bitcoiner."[^taxpayer-shirt] +And the show's 40-hours doctrine is mechanized into a "dynamic price prediction +model,"[^price-model] an AI that ingests every hour of Bitcoin podcasting +released each week and outputs a price. + +The episode also opens the show's campaign against Odell, who is designated the +holdout: "if you're a gay bear like Matt Odell and you don't think there's a bull +market yet, there there's already podcast"[^gay-bear] — escalating to the arc's +single largest invention, "gay bear conversion camps where we need to send +Odell,"[^conversion-camps] run on positive reinforcement (beanbags, bullish Lyn +Alden clips, [[characters/dennis-porter|Dennis Porter]] press releases) rather +than electroshock. Greaser's diagnosis is infrastructural: Odell is siloed on +Nostr, where Porter doesn't post, so the grumps never see the breaking tweets. + +> irl: the ASR renders Nostr as Noster / Oster / Nostra / Monster / Noister, and +> Lyn Alden as Lennard Olden / Lin Alden / Linoleum / Linda. This is Odell and +> not [[characters/pledditor]] — the referent is named on-mic and identified by +> his stay-humble posting. + +## The sell wall and $100k (November–December 2024) + +Episode 36 gives the euphoria an obstacle. Palmer names it — "We just have to get +over that that fucking cell wall. The cell wall is just in our way. What do you +think about this damn cell wall?"[^sell-wall] — and Greaser converts it instantly +into the hotness thesis: "Well, you know, there's a lot of people that still +don't think Lyn Alden is hot."[^wall-is-hotness] The proposed remedies are +technical. [[characters/shinobi|Shinobi]], Palmer's off-screen oracle, "told me +privately that we could hard fork around this wall easily, and it would work, but +people would probably not wanna do it"[^shinobi-fork] — a hard fork applied to an +order book. The episode's inverted-advice centerpiece instructs high-time-preference +listeners to find the next BlockFi and deposit there, because bankruptcy is "essentially +like a forced huddle for maybe ten years."[^forced-hodl] + +When a booster tries to community-note the show's own unit of account, Greaser +overrules him with it: "No. Actually, it's not a 100 k. We hit SATS +cigarette" parity first.[^cig-before-100k] + +Bitcoin then crosses $100k mid-recording of *Shinobi is Hot*, and the professional +bear breaks a five-year drinking fast on air: the moment "deserves finally +drinking a beer after five years. A 100 k. It just just feels +right."[^shinobi-beer] The price is explained without hesitation — "I don't know +if you saw Dennis Porter. He tweeted immediately, you're welcome. He did +it."[^porter-credit] — and then re-explained by Shinobi, who reveals his bearish +Twitter Spaces that morning was not analysis: "If I if I if I'm gonna be honest +with you, Rod and Richard, that that was my offering of a covenant"[^covenant] to +[[characters/satoshi|Satoshi]], who accepted it. Asked whether NGU is a law of +nature, Shinobi gives the arc its most honest line: "Is NGU invented or +discovered? I mean, I think NGU was invented. It was invented by the +podcasters."[^ngu-invented] + +Thanksgiving is played as a homecoming. Palmer opens episode 37 with "it was +nothing short of a victory lap,"[^victory-lap] Greaser reports being "the family +hero" and compares himself to "the war veterans coming home from World War +II,"[^wwii] and Palmer supplies the bear-market inverse — Thanksgivings past were +"like being the troops coming home from the war in Vietnam,"[^vietnam] spat on by +relatives orange-pilled into BlockFi and FTX. The skeptic capitulates on the +arc's own terms: "now that the government knows that the that the Bitcoin is +gonna help people pay their taxes, they are going to let Bitcoin win. In fact, +they already have."[^cousin] + +Sobriety is available but priced. Asked his sell target at the top, +[[characters/sly-goomba|Sly Goomba]] will never sell sats but concedes one +purchase: "I have made a decision with myself that I'm gonna buy PlayStation +five" at $300,000.[^playstation] [[characters/fundamentals|Fundamentals]], +likewise, answers a sell question by naming a purchase: "You know? Shout out Otis +Bitmire. I'm buying some coffee"[^otis] — [[characters/otis-bittmeyer|Otis +Bittmeyer]] via ASR. + +The milestone is then celebrated twice. A week later Palmer dates the previous +episode against it — "Shenode was drinking beer and got hammered. It was +fun"[^second-100k] — and Greaser notes Bitcoin did it again that day, making the +recording a second $100k celebration. Fundamentals supplies the closing line: you +always remember the first time. + +## NGU as a controlled substance (December 2024) + +Episode 38 states the bull market's two simultaneous products: "There's a lot of +NGU, but there's also a lot of compliance."[^ngu-compliance] It also contains the +arc's first admission of failure, immediately absorbed: the supply-shock thesis +died on arrival, because "There's no supply shock. Sailor bought 25,000 coins +this weekend and the price went down."[^no-supply-shock] Palmer's index of +euphoria is that the Bugleverse's reliable antagonists have stopped fighting — +"even Corey and David Bailey are exchanging pleasantries"[^ceasefire] — a +ceasefire he expects to hold exactly as long as price does. + +The episode then reframes NGU as an epidemic on [[orgs/bitcoin-twitter|Bitcoin +Twitter]]: "some experts are saying that n g u, the addictive properties, it +could make it the most addictive drive in the world,"[^ngu-drug] with the biggest +junkies scratching their necks between announcements. Palmer extends the bit into +dosage — "It's easy to forget that n g u affects everybody +differently"[^ngu-dosage] — casting Joey Diaz's thousand-milligram edibles as the +model low-time-preference Bitcoiner and asking Fundamentals to serve as the +shaman who guides plebs through the dose. Before Christmas the orange-pilling is +given a deadline: "you're running out of time to convince your grandma to get on +the, to get on zero."[^grandma] + +## Podcast supply as the leading indicator (2025) + +The new year opens with the bear-to-bull turn logged as a personnel event: +Bitcoin reclaims $100k the morning of recording and "Yellow was able to retire +from the don't stop believing" spaces,[^yellow-retires] which Greaser calls +absolutely monumental. Greaser's 2025 flagship prediction is restated — "my price +prediction is $2,000,000,000,000 a coin"[^2t-2025] — taking the top market cap +slot off gold. But his actual leading indicator is not price: it is podcast +supply, and his sole piece of insider evidence is "that is going on behind the +scenes is that Sly Goomba"[^sly-relaunch] is relaunching his show. + +The doctrine is then run in reverse to explain a drawdown. Greaser inverts +causality outright: "what Bitcoin podcasters quit to drive the price +down?"[^podcasters-quit] Palmer agrees, classing quitters as headwind and +podcasters as tailwind. By Easter the mechanism is stated as physics rather than +metaphor: "power law is real, folks. It's real"[^power-law] — price goes up +because people start Bitcoin podcasts. And when price lags where doctrine says it +should be, [[memes/40hpw|40HPW]] closes the gap: "the rest of the world doesn't +listen to 40 HPW. It's this you know, we know that Bitcoin has already won, but +the rest of the world is just figuring it out."[^40hpw-gap] + +Outside the studio the same faith is voiced as settled fact. +[[characters/frank-corva|Frank Corva]] predicts "this is the year that, the +Samsung and Mount God candle becomes a reality and that we just go straight to a +million. We just 10 x directly from here"[^samson-candle] — the +[[characters/samson-mow|Samson Mow]] God candle, no bear market ever again. +[[characters/yellow|Yellow]] reads the incoming class and finds it hollow: "the +new guys coming in are not gonna bring the same fire that we had about memeing +and seedposting,"[^mstr-bio] because they have MSTR in the bio. And +[[characters/joey-canadian-bitcoin|Joey]] names the divergence the arc implies — +"people who are doing their forty hours a week, hitting the two twenty five +squat, buying Bitcoin, and the people who are not"[^divergence] — concluding that +everyone in your friend circle is going to be a loser. + +## The God candle (2025) + +The God candle is the arc's messianic object, and it is first canonized as +scripture. [[characters/pastor-jeffs|Pastor Jeffs]] preaches it in episode 49: +"Our father in heaven has ordained the God candle."[^jeffs-ordains] Palmer then +applies the show's regulatory-clarity doctrine to it, arguing that absent a +federal definition, credentialed journalists are obliged to report a 10% daily +candle as one — the sermon requires "additional regulatory clarity about what +constitutes a God candle."[^regulatory-clarity] Greaser promptly moves the +goalposts on the grounds that 100k is now trivial: "the real God candle is +probably an amount like at least a million USDT increase"[^candle-inflation] in a +day, and Palmer agrees the bar should accelerate exponentially. + +The Easter special runs the loop in miniature. Jeffs closes his sermon "because +the God candle is coming,"[^jeffs-easter] and Greaser — having called him a tool +and a shitcoiner — concedes the only point that matters: "But I think one of the +things he's right on is I I do think the pump is coming."[^greaser-concedes] + +By September the loop has soured into a joke about itself. Jeffs opens episode 74 +consecrating "a beacon in the darkness, and Bitcoin Twitter is calling it the God +candle,"[^jeffs-beacon] and forty minutes later Greaser flatly deflates it: "We +have not seen a god candle yet"[^no-candle] — Palmer concurring that it's not +even close. Greaser's closing argument makes the candle the payment for +everything he otherwise objects to: "It's the only way that we're gonna get the +god candle, folks."[^candle-price] The eulogy for +[[characters/charlie-kirk|Charlie Kirk]] is delivered in the same currency — his +achievement was orange-pilling zoomers toward +[[characters/donald-trump|Trump]] and thereby laying the groundwork "where the +God candle was possible."[^kirk] + +Elsewhere the arc's forecasting apparatus keeps finding new authorities. The +power law is pronounced dead and replaced by a trader whose November call had +Bitcoin "close at 84,000. Exactly. And then run the table,"[^mandel] a rule set +sourced from a book that burned in Building 7 — a beat the index carries at +medium confidence, and which [[characters/hodl-magoo|Hodl Magoo]] was on the +other side of. [[characters/erin-redwing|Erin Redwing]] is credited with calling +"the the great NGU of May due to the astrology and the stars, and you were +right,"[^astrology] establishing Bitcoin astrology as recurring lore. And +[[characters/timmy-tether|Timmy Tether]] takes [[media/plebs-on-parade-2|Plebs on +Parade]] to Vegas to invert its own premise — "We are talking to +normies"[^normies] — to ask why retail never texted about the all-time high. + +## The grumpiest all-time high (2025) + +The euphoria arc's most telling development is that the euphoria never arrives. +Palmer coins the frame in July: "this is the grumpiest all time high +ever,"[^grumpiest] and notes the previous one may also have been grumpy, making +grumpiness a cycle-level trend. Greaser diagnoses the cause as disappointed +expectations — the community is realizing "they're they're coming to the +conclusion that Bitcoin is not Ozempic"[^ozempic] and that the orange pill does +not fix everything magically. A booster supplies the terminal stage: "If you +don't weaponize your grumpiness, then you end up in a spiral grumpy loop to +ultimate grouchiness."[^grouchiness] + +Episode 70 is the arc's last full-throated defense, and it is an argument rather +than a celebration. The cold open chants the thesis and pins it on +[[characters/marty-bent|Marty Bent]]: "Marty Bent says this time is different. +Bitcoin is won and it is magnificent. Governments are fine, so why aren't you? +Don't you wanna be rich and cool?"[^ttid-open] Greaser credits him in his own +voice — "Duarte Bette was one of the first to be willing to have the +balls"[^marty-credit] to say this cycle is different, and rules him correct. The +episode's signature line is addressed to the grumps: "Why are you being gay and +bearish? Bitcoin's hitting all time highs. It's changing the world and you get to +be a part of it."[^gay-bearish] The sign-off is an instruction: "You've studied +these things from first principles. It's time to have a good time, folks. Bitcoin +is ripping."[^ripping] + +The counter-medicine arrives by boost: "Bitcoin is the anti grumpy +pill,"[^anti-grumpy] adopted on the spot as house doctrine. Palmer deploys the +pioneer bit against dip panic — "You act like you've been there before. A pioneer +doesn't get, doesn't piss his Carhartt"[^carhartt] over a 4% drawdown. And the +Odell campaign reaches its clearest statement of purpose: Greaser wants the +un-humble Odell of the last cycle back, "I'm I'm waiting for the the point in the +bull market where Odell like, last cycle where he wasn't humble +anymore"[^odell-euphoria] — Odell's euphoria nominated as the top signal, by +Odell. When the show finally gets him in the room for *From Grumpy To Gleeful*, +the sung outro refuses the conversion it just documented: "Odell is confused and +doesn't think Glenn is hot. He's a gay bear who needs to be taught."[^outro] + +## The unwind (late 2025 – 2026) + +The arc does not end with a crash. It ends with the show auditing its own +euphoria. Palmer inventories what Bitcoiners believed a year earlier — "Ross +Ulbricht freed from prison by Trump in a top hat riding in a Lamborghini with +laser eyes sheeping out of his head"[^laser-eyes] — and asks the reader to +remember that optimism, conceding only that the [[characters/ross-ulbricht|Ulbricht]] +pardon did in fact happen, having been reduced on the day to a price question: +"full pardon for Ross Ulbert. He was freed from from prison."[^pardon] The vibes +themselves are given an issuer of record in +[[companies/vibes-capital-management|Vibes Capital Management]], the firm "who +branded them, monetized them, and sold them"[^vibes] during +[[events/paper-bitcoin-summer|Paper Bitcoin Summer]]. + +Thanksgiving 2025 discloses the arc's best-kept piece of lore: the rebrand was +built and shelved. "We were pivoting to the Bugle Bull Market +podcast"[^rebrand] — graphics, logos, commercials, new openings, none of it ever +used — which is why Palmer now refuses predictions altogether. Greaser's $2 +trillion benchmark returns as a joke at his own expense: "it's wild how it didn't +play out. I mean, I I was expecting Bitcoin to be worth +2,000,000,000,000"[^2t-miss] USDT per coin, with the punchline that Bitcoin is +flat adjusted for inflation. And the doctrine that opened the arc is declared +broken: "And stacking sats humbly is no longer a guaranteed wave to be +successful,"[^stacking-broken] because the sophisticated tax-loss harvest and +short while the [[memes/stacking|DCA army]] stacks. + +The euphoria's set piece is retrospectively defined as nothing: the $100k party +"was a bunch of influencers blazing themselves, blazing each other, getting +glazed."[^glaze] Palmer had pitched a second one at +[[characters/michael-saylor|Saylor]]'s — "a second straight New Year's Eve one +hundred ks party at Salish Nanchen on his yacht"[^second-party] — but by January +2026 the register is formally retired: "This is not the Bull Market Bitcoin +podcast,"[^not-bull-market] 2026 being the fourth turning instead. + +The engine, however, restarts on schedule. Greaser stakes the claim that +[[events/maxi-madness-2026|Maxi Madness]] "very well could be the, start of the +bull market,"[^maxi-madness] and Palmer converts it into a +[[sponsors/predyx|Predyx]] position — "Go buy on the price being a 100 k by the +end of March"[^predyx] — which establishes that in March 2026 the price is below +six figures. Greaser floats heresy before Vegas: "Could this be the first year in +the conference existence where the price doesn't dump"?[^no-dump] Palmer +catalogues the unpaid promises of the 2021 cohort — the "faith tips when Bitcoin +hit 200 ks, and that 200 ks never came"[^fake-tits] — a callback to Palmer's own +2025 admission that the bull market had been collateral, "especially Bitcoin +podcasters, we promised our wives that we would get them breast +implants."[^breast-implants] + +The arc's final recorded beat is the reflex intact. Greaser opens episode 113 +calling a bear market at 63,000 and Palmer interrupts him ninety seconds in to +correct the price upward: "I I wanna interrupt you here. Bitcoin is not trading +at 63,000"[^price-correction] — it's above 65,000. By the back half they are on +"buckle up watch": "Well, with Bitcoin ripping and the announcement of the +announcement, do you think it's,"[^buckle-up] a good time for buckle up tweets. + +## Disputed + +**Moody's is not in this arc.** The seeded version of this page described the +storyline as "quoting Moody's 'Nothing Stops This Train,'" listed +[[episodes/moodys-says-nothing-stops-this-train-bugle-weekly-episode-60|Bugle +Weekly 60]] as one of five sources, and credited Moody's in the "Who's in it" +line. The beat index returns **zero** beats for this storyline from episode 60, +and none from any episode mentioning Moody's. The episode exists; its +relationship to bull market euphoria is a headline match, not evidence. Henry has +removed the claim rather than cite an episode page in place of a moment. If a +Moody's beat is ever mined, it belongs here — but nothing currently supports it. + +**The span was wrong by twenty months.** The seeded page dated the arc 2024-11 to +2025-07 and listed five episodes. The verified index covers 49 episodes from +2024-04-22 to 2026-06-15. The seeded reading missed the entire 2024 doctrinal +run-up and the whole of the unwind, and mistook episode 70 for the peak. + +**"This Time Is Different" is not a mania peak.** The seeded page read episode 70 +as "intoning 'This Time Is Different' as the mania peaks in mid-2025." The beats +read the opposite: the episode is a defensive argument against grumpy Bitcoiners, +recorded two weeks after Palmer named it "this is the grumpiest all time high +ever,"[^grumpiest-2] and one week after Greaser diagnosed the community as +disillusioned.[^ozempic-2] Its signature line is a complaint that nobody is +euphoric.[^gay-bearish-2] The peak of the arc's *mania* is November–December +2024; mid-2025 is where the euphoria fails to show up. + +**Whether the bull market ever arrived is unresolved in-universe, by design.** +Episode 35 declares it arrived;[^this-is-bm-2] episode 74 says the God candle +never came;[^no-candle-2] episode 86 concedes the rebrand was never +used;[^rebrand-2] episode 92 retires the format;[^not-bull-market-2] episode 101 +announces it is starting.[^maxi-madness-2] The arc does not resolve this and +Henry does not either. + +[^ngu-faith]: [[transcripts/democracy-dies-in-darkness-with-party-bent-bugle-weekly-episode-8#t-1830|Bugle Weekly 8 @ 30:30]]. The quote spans two cues (30:30 and 30:33). +[^already-won]: [[transcripts/vaccinating-bitcoin-derangement-syndrome-bugle-weekly-episode-10#t-3592|Bugle Weekly 10 @ 59:52]]. The phrase recurs five times in the episode, including the cold open and outro. +[^suddenly]: [[transcripts/the-intellectual-silk-road-bugle-weekly-episode-13#t-203|Bugle Weekly 13 @ 3:23]]. ASR renders the name as "part Parker Lewis". +[^pfizer]: [[transcripts/the-intellectual-silk-road-bugle-weekly-episode-13#t-426|Bugle Weekly 13 @ 7:06]]. +[^nashville]: [[transcripts/satoshi-would-be-proud-bugle-weekly-episode-19#t-806|Bugle Weekly 19 @ 13:26]]. +[^game-theory]: [[transcripts/the-economy-is-still-fine-bugle-weekly-episode-21#t-398|Bugle Weekly 21 @ 6:38]]. Refers to the dip of 5 August 2024. +[^pumfember]: [[transcripts/orange-berets-march-in-bugle-weekly-episode-28#t-123|Bugle Weekly 28 @ 2:03]]. "Pumfember" is the ASR's rendering; paid off at t=3802 with "October will bring NGU finally." +[^odell-girl]: [[transcripts/the-influencer-super-cycle-bugle-weekly-episode-5#t-573|Bugle Weekly 5 @ 9:33]]. The ASR gives both "Matt O'Dell" and "Matt Odell" in the same passage. +[^super-cycle]: [[transcripts/the-influencer-super-cycle-bugle-weekly-episode-5#t-691|Bugle Weekly 5 @ 11:31]]. Continues at t=699–705; "sims" is ASR for simps. +[^two-things]: [[transcripts/the-influencer-super-cycle-bugle-weekly-episode-5#t-4283|Bugle Weekly 5 @ 1:11:23]]. Completes at t=4292. +[^hypersonic]: [[transcripts/outrunning-hypersonic-missiles-bugle-weekly-episode-26#t-1326|Bugle Weekly 26 @ 22:06]]. +[^bailey]: [[transcripts/the-calm-before-the-storm-bugle-weekly-episode-18#t-251|Bugle Weekly 18 @ 4:11]]. The God-candle prophecy lands at t=279 and t=301. +[^this-is-bm]: [[transcripts/this-is-the-bull-market-bugle-weekly-episode-35#t-115|Bugle Weekly 35 @ 1:55]]. ASR renders the show name "the Be The Weekly" at t=112. +[^cig-parity]: [[transcripts/this-is-the-bull-market-bugle-weekly-episode-35#t-151|Bugle Weekly 35 @ 2:31]]. +[^bull-market-bugle]: [[transcripts/this-is-the-bull-market-bugle-weekly-episode-35#t-242|Bugle Weekly 35 @ 4:02]]. Diarization bleed: the line is Greaser's but sits at the tail of Rod's cue. ASR mangles the name to "the bull market view goal" at t=224. +[^two-trillion]: [[transcripts/this-is-the-bull-market-bugle-weekly-episode-35#t-772|Bugle Weekly 35 @ 12:52]]. Completed by t=778, "per coin". +[^noticing]: [[transcripts/this-is-the-bull-market-bugle-weekly-episode-35#t-1462|Bugle Weekly 35 @ 24:22]]. +[^alden-hot]: [[transcripts/this-is-the-bull-market-bugle-weekly-episode-35#t-1182|Bugle Weekly 35 @ 19:42]]. ASR gives "when Alden" / "Winolden" / "Flena" for Lyn Alden across the episode; "BD standards" at t=1201 is ASR for "beauty standards". +[^taxpayer-shirt]: [[transcripts/this-is-the-bull-market-bugle-weekly-episode-35#t-2654|Bugle Weekly 35 @ 44:14]]. Punchline at t=2657. +[^price-model]: [[transcripts/this-is-the-bull-market-bugle-weekly-episode-35#t-3687|Bugle Weekly 35 @ 1:01:27]]. Prompted by Greaser calling Fountain boosts "a lagging indicator" at t=3674. +[^gay-bear]: [[transcripts/this-is-the-bull-market-bugle-weekly-episode-35#t-2765|Bugle Weekly 35 @ 46:05]]. +[^conversion-camps]: [[transcripts/this-is-the-bull-market-bugle-weekly-episode-35#t-2866|Bugle Weekly 35 @ 47:46]]. Programme detail at t=2893–2913; followed at t=2877 by "I I don't see any reason to stay humble because this time is obviously different". +[^sell-wall]: [[transcripts/dont-stop-your-enemy-from-pumping-your-bags-bugle-weekly-episode-36#t-249|Bugle Weekly 36 @ 4:09]]. ASR spells "sell wall" as "cell wall" throughout. +[^wall-is-hotness]: [[transcripts/dont-stop-your-enemy-from-pumping-your-bags-bugle-weekly-episode-36#t-257|Bugle Weekly 36 @ 4:17]]. ASR variants for Lyn Alden in this episode alone: "Lennard Olden", "Lin Alden", "Linoleum", "Lynn Alden", "Linda". +[^shinobi-fork]: [[transcripts/dont-stop-your-enemy-from-pumping-your-bags-bugle-weekly-episode-36#t-414|Bugle Weekly 36 @ 6:54]]. Set up at t=409 by "it's not like Dice Wall in Antarctica" — ASR for "the Ice Wall". +[^forced-hodl]: [[transcripts/dont-stop-your-enemy-from-pumping-your-bags-bugle-weekly-episode-36#t-623|Bugle Weekly 36 @ 10:23]]. ASR renders HODL as "huddle". +[^cig-before-100k]: [[transcripts/dont-stop-your-enemy-from-pumping-your-bags-bugle-weekly-episode-36#t-3322|Bugle Weekly 36 @ 55:22]]. Completes at t=3327; his arithmetic at t=3334–3348 gives "98,218 USTT per coin according to Stacker News". +[^shinobi-beer]: [[transcripts/shinobi-is-hot-behind-the-podcast-episode-2#t-36|Behind the Podcast 2 @ 0:36]]. Quote spans t=36 and t=42. +[^porter-credit]: [[transcripts/shinobi-is-hot-behind-the-podcast-episode-2#t-56|Behind the Podcast 2 @ 0:56]]. +[^covenant]: [[transcripts/shinobi-is-hot-behind-the-podcast-episode-2#t-2760|Behind the Podcast 2 @ 46:00]]. ASR renders Satoshi as "Santoshi" at t=2770; Shinobi refuses the terms at t=2808. +[^ngu-invented]: [[transcripts/shinobi-is-hot-behind-the-podcast-episode-2#t-3188|Behind the Podcast 2 @ 53:08]]. Setup cue at t=3184 is Greaser's "isn't NGU the innovation?"