Revision history · Sponsor
Predyx
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- bugle-ingest[bot] 2026-08-12 Ingest: 0 new episode(s) — raw sources + transcripts 32a9a2b
Show changes
diff --git a/wiki/sponsors/predyx.md b/wiki/sponsors/predyx.md new file mode 100644 index 00000000..6409917c @@ -0,0 +1,148 @@ +--- +title: Predyx +type: sponsor +status: confirmed +aliases: + - Predix + - Predicts + - Predics + - Predex + - predates + - PB +wpUrl: "https://bugleverse.com/all-bugleverse-content/media/ads/predyx/" +sources: + - raw/wp-pages/ads/predyx.md + - raw/episodes/rising-above-slop-bugle-weekly-episode-84/bundle.json + - raw/episodes/pioneers-prepare-for-christmas-bugle-weekly-episode-89/bundle.json + - raw/episodes/2026-starts-with-a-bang-bugle-weekly-episode-92/bundle.json + - raw/episodes/straight-out-of-distractions-bugle-weekly-episode-96/bundle.json + - raw/episodes/pleb-is-the-new-n-word-bugle-weekly-episode-98/bundle.json + - raw/episodes/the-madness-begins-bugle-weekly-episode-101/bundle.json + - raw/episodes/in-the-midst-of-madness-bugle-weekly-episode-102/bundle.json + - raw/episodes/bitcoin-magazine-maxi-madness-victory-twitter-spaces-with-casey-and-erin/bundle.json + - raw/episodes/hard-lessons-for-plebs-bugle-weekly-episode-103/bundle.json + - raw/episodes/how-to-win-maxi-madness-with-rev-hodl-isr-5/bundle.json + - raw/episodes/is-trump-taking-ibogaine-bugle-weekly-episode-106/bundle.json + - raw/episodes/are-the-aliens-zionists-bugle-weekly-episode-108/bundle.json + - raw/episodes/happy-pleb-pride-month-bugle-weekly-episode-111/bundle.json + - raw/episodes/white-goy-summer-headwinds-bugle-weekly-episode-112/bundle.json + - raw/episodes/fundamentals-larps-as-a-journalist-bugle-weekly-episode-115/bundle.json + - raw/episodes/freedom-is-disorganized-by-richard-greaser-bonus-episode/bundle.json +--- + +> *Henry's note: rebuilt from the beat index — 24 beats across 16 episodes, coverage COMPLETE. The prior body was the raw WordPress ad-read import; it is replaced here.* + +**Predyx** is the Bugleverse's prediction-market sponsor — a non-KYC betting book, reached at `beta.predyx.com`, whose ad reads open [[media/the-bugle-weekly|The Bugle Weekly]]. It is the rare sponsor that outgrows its own advertisement: over the arc it stops being a thing the hosts are paid to mention and becomes the instrument they reach for whenever an opinion needs pricing, a rival needs humbling, or a Bitcoin needs extracting. + +The cold-open ad establishes the tone in a single line, folding the show's own [[memes/40hpw|forty-hours-per-week]] doctrine into the sponsor copy: "It's only gambling if you don't listen to forty hours of Bitcoin podcasts per week."[^ad] The same read stakes the house position — a bet that "David Bailey will promote pump and dump ordinal scams," and the promise that "[[characters/david-bailey|David Bailey]] and [[characters/shinobi|Shinobi]] are finally going down."[^ad] + +## From ad read to instrument + +The show's operating maxim, delivered by [[characters/rod-palmer|Rod Palmer]] with instructions to write it down, is that "it's never gambling when you bet on Bitcoin."[^maxim] From there the product detaches from its ad slot. The hosts start opening markets on their own enemies: [[characters/richard-greaser|Greaser]] proposes a Predyx line on whether [[characters/matthew-kratter|Matthew Kratter]] can "make it through a month without doing a video on child porn," and takes the no.[^kratter] Both hosts run a market shorting [[characters/dennis-porter|Dennis Porter]] ever tweeting again — "we both do not think that Dennis Porter will be tweeting. So I guess we're bearish on" the State Department's ability to negotiate his return.[^porter] Audience predictions get the same treatment: boost in your calls for the year and Rod offers to load them onto Predyx "to see how everybody feels about them."[^boost] + +Greaser's attachment to the platform is partly a story of failure elsewhere. He got "real excited when predex launched," having "never figured out how to use stable coins" and been unable to "figure out PolyMarket" — he "didn't even wanna ask my wife to figure it out for me."[^usability] He welcomes Predyx as "a little bit more engaged with the culture than Polymarket," the culture being the only thing he could reliably operate.[^culture] + +## The BIP 110 front + +Predyx becomes a live weapon in [[storylines/core-vs-knots-war|the Core–Knots war]]. It is the first prediction market the show cites on the consensus fight: Predyx put BIP 110 activation at "13.6%," which Greaser waves at [[characters/luke-dashjr|Luke Dashjr]] — "it sounds like Luke is lying" about prediction markets being a scam.[^bip] The market becomes a loyalty test the loud can't pass: [[characters/need-creations|Need Creations]] "is all wound up about it" and "wants his buddies to throw down on the market," except "I don't think he's figured out how to set up his lightning wallet yet."[^needcreations] + +Rod builds the doctrine out from there. Refusing to bet is itself the confession — "if you're not willing to put your money where your blood slot is," you have priced your own opinion.[^plebslop] And when the BIP 110 line sinks toward one percent, betting a near-certainty is recast not as a wager but a moral act: "You are using inside information. It's not illegal," a virtue-signaling campaign against the scammers "paying 99 cents to earn 1 cent."[^righteous] + +## Maxi Madness + +The platform's high-water mark is [[events/maxi-madness-2026|Maxi Madness]]. The prediction markets did "more than 1.2 Bitcoin with almost a full Bitcoin paid to winners" in the tournament's first year,[^volume] a number Rod reads as consensus itself: the market did over 1.2 BTC in a week while the BIP 110 line "never cleared 1 BTC in months," which is "literally the market telling you that Maxi Madness is bigger than BIP 110" — a death knell for the soft-fork push.[^bigger] Greaser makes the ideological claim explicit: betting the bracket on Predyx beats March Madness, and "if you don't like that, then you don't like hyperbitcoinization."[^hyper] + +The tournament also exposes the product as a beta. When [[characters/jack-dorsey|Jack Dorsey]] was disqualified, Predyx had already resolved for him and "the people were betting on Jack in the prediction markets" lost sats to a poll bug.[^jack] Greaser recuses himself on conflict-of-interest grounds — "I don't feel comfortable with putting any money on predates because I'm" facilitating the Nostr bracket — and names [[characters/rev-hodl|Rev Hodl]] as his pick to win it all, which Rev then did.[^recuse] Rev's own account reframes his run entirely: "It was me versus Predix," not versus [[characters/matt-odell|Matt Odell]], the market having priced his semifinal as a cakewalk.[^rev] The bracket's founding scandal lives here too — an unnamed party accused of moving the poll with "men pumps that they spun up," spun-up npubs beating Primal's web of trust, a culprit Rev pointedly declines to name.[^npubs] + +The show is candid about what all this is for. After the 1.2 BTC cleared, Greaser states the business model plainly: "We're always looking for new ways to extract Bitcoin from you guys."[^extract] + +## Journalism's printing press + +By mid-2026 Predyx is load-bearing lore, and the markets attach to everyone. A Predyx line on whether [[characters/cory-klippsten|Cory Klippsten]]'s Swan would win its lawsuit against Tether — "like low twenties" at last look — frames the segment in which Rod diagnoses him with "AI psychosis."[^swan] Rod's media thesis credits prediction markets with killing the meme coin: the assassination markets on Solana have "totally been replaced by Polymarket," Kalshi, Predyx and Glimpse.[^memecoin] When slop breaks the information ecosystem, it is the markets that fail last — they "aren't even resolving because nobody, not even Polymarket or predicts or Calshi" can establish which announcements are real.[^resolve] Predyx even sets the price of Bitcoin itself in the prose, Rod pointing listeners at "the price being a 100 k by the end of March" before the pump.[^price] + +The grandest claim is Rod's: prediction markets are "the most important technological breakthrough for journalists since the printing press," their traders deserving of source-level anonymity — a new plank in the show's credentialed-journalism doctrine.[^printing] Greaser supplies the philosopher's version: anyone claiming Bitcoin is "humanity's last hope" is claiming to predict the future, so "you better be making a bunch of money on Polymarket or Predix or whatever."[^lasthope] By the time [[characters/matt-odell|Matt Odell]]'s only appearance in an episode is as a Predyx market — whether he will admit he was wrong about BIP 110, which Greaser judges unresolvable because Odell "has no stated position to be wrong about" — the platform has become the show's default way of holding anyone to account.[^odell] + +## The book, posted live + +What the episodes narrate, the Bugleverse accounts run as a live ticker. On X the platform is a scoreboard the show updates in real time — every market cited on-air has a screenshot behind it, and the accounts treat the odds as breaking news. + +### The BIP 110 scoreboard + +The consensus fight from [[storylines/core-vs-knots-war|the Core–Knots war]] is fought post-by-post as a Predyx line. When the number moves the show reports it as a bulletin — "#BIP110 chances soar to 88% on Predyx as plebs start renting hash from China."[^x-88] + + + +— [@bitcoin_bugle, 2026-04-10](https://x.com/bitcoin_bugle/status/2042399400601760080) + +The market doubles as an instrument of humiliation: the [[characters/luke-dashjr|Knotzi]] camp is cast as unable to survive its own price. "Knotzi group chats BAN 🚫 mentions of BIP-110 Predyx market because it shows them losing."[^x-ban] + + + +— [@bitcoin_bugle, 2026-02-22](https://x.com/bitcoin_bugle/status/2025569952246141230) + +By mid-2026 [[characters/rod-palmer|Rod Palmer]]'s own posts have turned to the reflexive comedy of a market thin enough to move by hand — "plebs betting 1000 sats on predyx trying to manipulate the bip 110 market up"[^x-manip] — and to reading the order book as a text: "was reading the comments under the bip 110 predyx market and discovered some kayfabe."[^x-kayfabe] The same logic governs his reply-guy doctrine on signalling; the ask is never a mere opinion but a stake: "gotta get a single miner to signal or even bet 1000 sats on predyx first."[^x-signal] + + + +— [@rodpalmerhodl, 2026-07-12](https://x.com/rodpalmerhodl/status/2076116844012814638) + +### Markets on people + +The timeline extends the show's habit of pricing individuals. [[characters/matt-odell|Odell]] is reported opening a book on a rival's very existence — "@ODELLXYZ Opens Predyx Market On Whether @[[characters/noa-gruman|Noa_Gruman]] Is A Deep Fake"[^x-odell] — and [[characters/marshall-long|Marshall Long]] gets his career priced: "Odds Of Marshall Long Having A Litigious Falling Out With His New Employer OBM In The Next 6 Months Rise To 61% On Predyx."[^x-marshall] [[characters/richard-greaser|Greaser]]'s off-mic frustration confirms he trades his own grudges — a real-world event, he complains, "screws up my bet on Predyx."[^x-greaser-bet] + +### Product announcements + +The accounts also advertise Predyx features that do not exist, in the register of a press release. The tax angle folds the platform into the show's [[memes/40hpw|not-gambling]] theology: "'You shouldn't have to pay taxes if you bet on #Bitcoin.' PREDYX announces tax advantaged prediction market retirement accounts."[^x-tax] + + + +— [@bitcoin_bugle, 2026-05-20](https://x.com/bitcoin_bugle/status/2057141234934636881) + +### The operators, off-mic + +The hosts post as principals, not just readers. Greaser pitches new lines the way he does on air, benchmarking everything against the soft fork — "Need a Predyx Market for whether or not there will be a Paper Bitcoin summer. I think the odds are likely higher than BIP 110 activating."[^x-paper] And the sponsor relationship is stated as ambition rather than disclosure, Rod promising a partner tag that "we are going to partner with predyx so hard for maxi madness next year"[^x-partner] — the [[events/maxi-madness-2026|Maxi Madness]] integration, previewed months before it cleared its 1.2 BTC. + +## Note on the name + +The ASR cannot spell it. Across the corpus Predyx arrives as **Predix, Predicts, Predics, Predex, predates** and even **PB** — and "predicts" is by far the most common rendering, which makes a name-match scan for the sponsor collide constantly with the ordinary verb. Every beat above was resolved from context. + +> irl: Predyx is a real non-KYC, Lightning-native prediction-market platform; the satire needs no exaggeration to make the show bet its own grudges on it. + +[^ad]: [[transcripts/rising-above-slop-bugle-weekly-episode-84#t-44|Bugle Weekly 84 @ 0:44]] — the first of two cold-open ad reads; the same cue continues "David Bailey and Shinobi are finally going down," and the earlier line "David Bailey will promote pump and dump ordinal scams. Hey, Terrence" (a bet aimed at [[characters/terrence-yang|Terrence Yang]]) lands at t=39. +[^maxim]: [[transcripts/pleb-is-the-new-n-word-bugle-weekly-episode-98#t-2259|Bugle Weekly 98 @ 37:39]] — "So write that down" follows at t=2262. +[^kratter]: [[transcripts/rising-above-slop-bugle-weekly-episode-84#t-2504|Bugle Weekly 84 @ 41:44]] — medium-confidence beat; "Mathcatter" is the ASR mangling of Matthew Kratter, read on phonetics plus the episode's later Bitcoin University references. Rod's reply "I'll take the no mister Trebek" (t=2516) triggers Greaser's "Who's Trebek?" +[^porter]: [[transcripts/pioneers-prepare-for-christmas-bugle-weekly-episode-89#t-1284|Bugle Weekly 89 @ 21:24]] — the market is named at t=1270 ("will Dennis Porter post a tweet before January 1?"; "lost your market" is ASR, likely "launched a market") and completes at t=1291 with "the US State Department's ability to negotiate the return of Dennis Porter." +[^boost]: [[transcripts/2026-starts-with-a-bang-bugle-weekly-episode-92#t-2646|Bugle Weekly 92 @ 44:06]] — Rod offers to load audience predictions onto Predyx; ASR spells the sponsor "Predix"/"Predicts" here, e.g. t=2661. +[^usability]: [[transcripts/pleb-is-the-new-n-word-bugle-weekly-episode-98#t-2054|Bugle Weekly 98 @ 34:14]] — "I got real excited when predex launched... I could never figure out PolyMarket. I didn't even wanna ask my wife to figure it out for me." "predex" = Predyx. +[^culture]: [[transcripts/pioneers-prepare-for-christmas-bugle-weekly-episode-89#t-1212|Bugle Weekly 89 @ 20:12]] — "I'm glad that there's one that's a little bit more engaged with the culture than Polymarket... until I tried to get on the website and realized that you needed USDC to trade on it." +[^bip]: [[transcripts/straight-out-of-distractions-bugle-weekly-episode-96#t-2477|Bugle Weekly 96 @ 41:17]] — setup at t=2460 ("predicts has a market for bit 10 one ten. And Luke's out there... talking about how prediction markets are a scam"); the "13.6%" figure lands at t=2485. "predicts" = Predyx; "bit one ten" = BIP 110; the chapter is titled "Predix, BIP 110, and prediction markets." +[^needcreations]: [[transcripts/straight-out-of-distractions-bugle-weekly-episode-96#t-2493|Bugle Weekly 96 @ 41:33]] — punchline at t=2496: "I don't think he's figured out how to set up his lightning wallet yet." +[^plebslop]: [[transcripts/hard-lessons-for-plebs-bugle-weekly-episode-103#t-776|Bugle Weekly 103 @ 12:56]] — "blood slot" is ASR for plebslop; payoff at t=786: "this is why I think pledge are so terrified of prediction markets" ("pledge" = plebs). +[^righteous]: [[transcripts/pleb-is-the-new-n-word-bugle-weekly-episode-98#t-2332|Bugle Weekly 98 @ 38:52]] — Rod's argument that betting a claimed certainty is "the righteous thing to do"; the one-percent line ("BIF one ten... now as low as 1%", "BIF one ten" = BIP 110) is at t=2035, and BTC Sessions actually betting no ("Put your money where your open mouth thumbnails are") at t=2399. +[^volume]: [[transcripts/bitcoin-magazine-maxi-madness-victory-twitter-spaces-with-casey-and-erin#t-2571|Maxi Madness Victory Spaces @ 42:51]] — ASR renders Predyx as "predicts"; Rod worries astrologers plus prediction markets "completely changes the game theory of Maxi Madness." +[^bigger]: [[transcripts/hard-lessons-for-plebs-bugle-weekly-episode-103#t-503|Bugle Weekly 103 @ 8:23]] — set up by the chapter "Poor Performance by the Nazis" (the Knotzis) at t=448 and "a death knell for BIP 110" at t=454. +[^hyper]: [[transcripts/in-the-midst-of-madness-bugle-weekly-episode-102#t-2843|Bugle Weekly 102 @ 47:23]] — the argument being that "March Madness, sports polls, fiat." +[^jack]: [[transcripts/in-the-midst-of-madness-bugle-weekly-episode-102#t-279|Bugle Weekly 102 @ 4:39]] — [[characters/jack-dorsey|Jack Dorsey]]'s disqualification; ASR renders Predyx as "Predicts" (t=282), "predates" (t=1388) and "PB" (t=1706). +[^recuse]: [[transcripts/in-the-midst-of-madness-bugle-weekly-episode-102#t-1388|Bugle Weekly 102 @ 23:08]] — "predates" = Predyx; Rev Hodl went on to win the Nostr bracket. +[^rev]: [[transcripts/how-to-win-maxi-madness-with-rev-hodl-isr-5#t-925|How To Win Maxi Madness With Rev Hodl (ISR 5) @ 15:25]] — "Predix" = Predyx; the preceding cue (t=923) is "it wasn't me versus Odell," and the payoff at t=972 is "The Meshedel totally shut that prediction market down." +[^npubs]: [[transcripts/how-to-win-maxi-madness-with-rev-hodl-isr-5#t-950|How To Win Maxi Madness With Rev Hodl (ISR 5) @ 15:50]] — medium-confidence beat; "men pumps" is ASR for "npubs." Rev declines to name the culprit at t=927: "someone had figured out I'm not gonna say who." +[^extract]: [[transcripts/hard-lessons-for-plebs-bugle-weekly-episode-103#t-4173|Bugle Weekly 103 @ 1:09:33]] — follows "It's just about finding creative ways to to extract it" at t=4164. +[^swan]: [[transcripts/are-the-aliens-zionists-bugle-weekly-episode-108#t-3620|Bugle Weekly 108 @ 1:00:20]] — the verbatim beat is "Corey might have AI psychosis" ("Corey" = Cory Klippsten); the segment opens on a Predyx ("predicts") market for "the likelihood of Swan winning their lawsuit against Tether" (t≈3453), which Rod says was "like low twenties." +[^memecoin]: [[transcripts/happy-pleb-pride-month-bugle-weekly-episode-111#t-2482|Bugle Weekly 111 @ 41:22]] — the thought spans several short cues (41:16–41:27), the contiguous "Predix" landing just after this one; Glimpse has no page. Rod's claim at t≈2465: prediction markets are "the majority of the reason why meme coins themselves had died off." +[^resolve]: [[transcripts/the-madness-begins-bugle-weekly-episode-101#t-587|Bugle Weekly 101 @ 9:47]] — "predicts" = Predyx; "Calshi" = Kalshi. +[^price]: [[transcripts/the-madness-begins-bugle-weekly-episode-101#t-1413|Bugle Weekly 101 @ 23:33]] — ASR spells the sponsor "predicts"/"predics." +[^printing]: [[transcripts/white-goy-summer-headwinds-bugle-weekly-episode-112#t-2029|Bugle Weekly 112 @ 33:49]] — the quote spans three cues; Greaser extends it at t≈2060 with "I put a bunch of bets on predicts this week" and frames prediction markets as a revenue stopgap for laid-off journalists. +[^lasthope]: [[transcripts/freedom-is-disorganized-by-richard-greaser-bonus-episode|Freedom Is Disorganized by Richard Greaser (Bonus Episode) @ 43:07]] — "Predix" = Predyx. +[^odell]: [[transcripts/fundamentals-larps-as-a-journalist-bugle-weekly-episode-115#t-3465|Bugle Weekly 115 @ 57:45]] — "Matt Aldell" is ASR for Matt Odell; the quote continues at t=3468 ("admitting that he was wrong about BIP one ten"), and Greaser's verdict at t=3478: "View on PIP one ten, I don't even really know. I don't think he knows either." Odell is a name-drop only and is not otherwise discussed. + +[^x-88]: [@bitcoin_bugle, 2026-04-10](https://x.com/bitcoin_bugle/status/2042399400601760080) — spelled "Predyx" correctly (the accounts are more reliable than the ASR). +[^x-ban]: [@bitcoin_bugle, 2026-02-22](https://x.com/bitcoin_bugle/status/2025569952246141230) — the highest-engagement Predyx post in the corpus (117 likes); two attached market screenshots. +[^x-manip]: [@rodpalmerhodl, 2026-07-12](https://x.com/rodpalmerhodl/status/2076116844012814638). +[^x-kayfabe]: [@rodpalmerhodl, 2026-07-08](https://x.com/rodpalmerhodl/status/2074838531252375657). +[^x-signal]: [@rodpalmerhodl, 2026-02-28](https://x.com/rodpalmerhodl/status/2027761107599786357) — reply to @AdamSimecka. +[^x-odell]: [@bitcoin_bugle, 2026-03-29](https://x.com/bitcoin_bugle/status/2038332480768356585). +[^x-marshall]: [@bitcoin_bugle, 2026-05-21](https://x.com/bitcoin_bugle/status/2057577045991792803) — "OBM" is Marshall Long's employer; no wiki page exists for it. +[^x-greaser-bet]: [@GreaserRichard, 2025-11-12](https://x.com/GreaserRichard/status/1988646902041330035) — reply to @GoldLeader89. +[^x-tax]: [@bitcoin_bugle, 2026-05-20](https://x.com/bitcoin_bugle/status/2057141234934636881). +[^x-paper]: [@GreaserRichard, 2026-03-31](https://x.com/GreaserRichard/status/2039046608982012215). +[^x-partner]: [@rodpalmerhodl, 2025-12-24](https://x.com/rodpalmerhodl/status/2003978849277575213) — reply in a thread tagging @predyx_markets, @Dennis_Porter_, @bitcoin_bugle and @GreaserRichard.